***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.0 15.0 91.8 54.0 47.2 7.5 12.5 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 10.2 14.2 97.3 58.5 48.1 4.6 7.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.9 13.4 15.9 99.7 60.1 47.7 5.9 10.0 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.6 24.2 19.9 115.4 66.8 52.6 8.2 12.7 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 17.4 18.6 18.8 113.5 65.0 50.5 6.5 13.0 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.1 15.6 21.5 104.2 61.8 52.3 4.3 10.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.4 10.0 13.7 92.8 57.9 46.7 3.7 7.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 22.9 29.1 20.0 108.8 63.2 54.2 14.8 19.8 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.5 18.9 110.2 63.8 50.9 6.3 10.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.4 19.4 20.9 106.5 61.9 51.6 11.2 15.1 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.9 13.7 17.2 111.7 63.5 50.9 5.1 9.4 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.4 15.7 17.1 107.2 61.8 52.7 5.2 11.4 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.9 20.1 110.2 63.2 51.5 4.3 7.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.3 23.1 105.8 62.0 49.4 9.4 13.3 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.9 16.1 17.0 111.4 66.3 52.8 5.6 7.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.4 15.0 18.4 111.3 63.8 51.4 3.4 6.8 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.8 8.9 12.9 91.5 55.9 44.2 5.4 6.8 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 16.0 24.4 109.0 63.0 51.3 7.8 14.4 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.9 12.0 14.7 98.6 59.5 48.4 4.8 9.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.6 23.3 111.5 65.2 54.1 8.3 15.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.0 17.0 104.3 61.7 49.2 6.2 9.7 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.3 15.0 105.9 61.5 48.3 6.1 8.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.2 15.2 96.1 60.2 47.0 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.3 16.1 21.8 108.9 63.0 50.1 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.6 9.5 16.8 92.9 54.1 47.5 5.9 9.4 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.3 18.4 17.9 110.1 64.4 54.2 7.1 11.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.0 15.8 89.7 53.0 46.7 7.1 12.3 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.1 18.3 19.1 116.0 67.5 52.8 5.0 10.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.5 26.4 25.2 114.9 67.6 53.7 11.9 19.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.6 14.7 98.5 60.0 48.6 7.0 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------