***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 6.2 7.7 10.4 55.1 37.3 31.8 7.2 9.9 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 6.1 7.2 9.3 52.3 37.7 32.8 7.0 10.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 5.7 8.6 10.2 55.7 38.6 32.9 7.0 11.0 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.5 7.8 12.0 61.3 41.1 35.9 4.7 11.8 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.4 5.0 11.0 59.6 37.4 34.3 4.4 9.8 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 5.1 8.2 15.9 73.2 42.0 37.8 6.1 9.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 4.5 4.3 8.7 50.8 37.8 31.4 3.8 10.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.4 20.6 16.1 80.8 51.3 43.2 15.2 20.2 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.2 5.7 11.4 60.9 35.9 35.2 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 7.0 10.5 13.8 67.2 42.4 36.8 9.5 13.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.7 4.6 12.8 66.8 41.7 36.0 3.0 5.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.4 8.3 15.2 82.2 49.4 42.7 5.4 8.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 3.7 4.6 14.0 69.5 43.5 36.4 3.1 7.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 5.8 7.6 13.7 58.1 33.3 32.9 7.4 14.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.1 2.9 11.8 62.6 42.8 35.2 1.7 5.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 4.6 8.1 13.1 66.4 41.2 35.7 6.4 10.1 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 3.7 5.2 8.3 47.7 35.0 29.6 5.2 7.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.9 9.1 14.3 63.9 37.5 35.5 7.9 13.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 5.7 10.3 9.6 53.5 37.2 33.3 9.7 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 7.3 7.1 14.4 62.7 36.3 35.1 6.8 11.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.1 4.7 10.0 54.9 35.7 33.8 4.2 12.3 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 6.7 5.7 8.6 46.8 33.7 29.1 5.7 12.3 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 7.1 9.5 10.1 54.7 35.6 32.6 8.8 13.5 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 7.5 12.7 13.6 63.5 37.6 35.7 11.5 13.6 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.6 11.4 54.5 34.0 32.2 3.4 6.2 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.2 6.2 15.4 77.2 46.2 39.3 3.3 6.4 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 5.7 5.5 11.1 54.1 35.4 31.2 5.2 14.4 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.2 5.0 11.3 60.6 41.9 35.0 4.5 7.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 12.3 17.6 16.0 67.9 40.7 37.3 12.1 19.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 6.1 9.6 9.3 52.0 38.4 32.5 8.2 12.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------