***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 3.6 2.4 8.9 60.8 37.1 33.9 2.0 11.0 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.4 2.9 7.3 57.4 36.8 33.2 2.7 4.6 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 2.7 7.3 9.5 67.7 42.8 36.5 2.0 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.6 20.1 16.8 102.6 61.5 47.8 8.4 14.0 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 4.7 14.2 15.2 97.5 58.3 46.4 3.0 11.5 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.4 20.4 22.5 121.3 68.5 57.8 7.2 12.7 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.0 3.8 7.2 57.0 38.8 33.2 3.6 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.1 27.8 23.7 122.7 70.3 59.0 10.4 16.8 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 4.1 9.2 14.8 92.6 52.7 44.2 3.8 8.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.0 17.3 21.6 111.7 65.1 52.6 5.0 11.6 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.2 15.3 17.3 110.7 65.9 51.3 6.6 9.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.5 17.6 18.9 118.6 68.8 57.0 4.9 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 13.6 14.1 21.3 127.2 69.6 58.2 2.9 9.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.8 14.8 81.2 45.8 40.1 4.1 8.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.1 17.8 15.5 119.0 69.6 54.1 4.9 8.3 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.4 16.3 18.5 121.6 68.7 55.7 6.7 9.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.0 3.6 7.5 59.4 40.3 33.6 3.4 5.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.7 16.3 23.0 110.3 61.9 51.7 3.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.9 7.0 8.2 62.9 40.5 35.1 3.9 11.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 17.7 21.3 28.7 139.5 76.3 65.7 5.7 10.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.7 10.9 12.1 80.3 46.8 40.2 2.9 11.9 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.0 6.0 8.4 65.5 45.0 36.3 4.6 6.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.8 9.7 70.8 44.1 37.7 4.2 7.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.9 13.1 15.2 86.2 50.4 41.8 7.3 12.9 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 4.5 7.8 12.4 72.8 43.7 39.4 4.4 10.8 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 14.4 19.1 23.5 149.5 79.0 63.9 4.6 6.0 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 5.3 8.3 10.9 68.5 42.9 37.8 5.2 13.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.2 15.0 18.4 118.8 70.0 53.2 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.6 24.5 24.1 116.5 65.4 55.6 9.1 16.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.9 3.3 7.9 60.6 39.8 35.1 1.8 7.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------