***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 25.1 25.6 24.7 2.4 86.2 82.3 23.0 23.6 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 25.4 26.1 24.9 2.6 87.6 83.2 23.1 24.1 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 25.3 26.1 24.8 2.3 85.9 81.0 23.1 23.9 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 17.7 18.2 21.5 1.8 81.7 76.6 15.8 16.8 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 25.3 26.0 22.3 1.7 80.5 74.9 23.4 24.1 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 23.5 23.6 19.2 1.0 69.4 65.7 21.6 22.8 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 24.9 25.8 24.7 2.5 87.1 82.5 22.5 23.8 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 12.9 12.9 19.7 1.0 70.8 65.4 11.2 12.2 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 24.8 25.4 23.0 1.9 82.5 76.6 22.8 23.4 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 24.4 24.9 21.0 1.4 76.0 70.0 22.5 23.2 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 24.6 25.0 22.0 1.5 78.1 72.3 22.9 23.7 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 23.6 23.9 20.9 1.2 73.9 68.4 21.8 22.8 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 24.7 25.0 20.7 1.2 72.1 68.0 22.9 23.8 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 25.2 25.5 22.6 1.7 77.0 73.3 22.5 23.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 25.6 26.2 23.2 2.0 84.9 79.9 23.3 24.0 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 25.3 26.0 21.3 1.4 76.1 70.7 23.4 24.2 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 24.9 25.3 24.7 2.6 87.0 83.2 22.4 23.6 24.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 23.8 24.1 20.2 1.2 71.7 67.2 22.2 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 24.7 25.7 25.0 2.7 88.4 83.9 22.7 23.6 24.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 18.3 19.1 17.4 0.8 63.6 61.1 17.3 18.1 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 25.0 25.9 24.0 2.0 83.9 78.0 22.9 23.6 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 25.0 25.9 24.5 2.5 86.1 82.3 23.0 24.0 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 25.3 26.0 25.1 2.8 89.2 84.5 23.3 23.8 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 24.3 24.8 22.6 1.7 78.9 73.5 22.4 23.2 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 25.1 25.7 23.0 2.1 84.3 80.5 23.1 23.7 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 24.1 24.4 20.1 1.3 76.1 69.8 22.3 23.4 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 24.8 25.5 23.9 2.3 85.0 81.5 22.7 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 25.3 25.9 21.8 1.6 79.9 74.6 23.1 24.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 18.7 19.1 19.2 1.0 68.3 64.4 17.0 18.0 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 25.2 26.0 24.9 2.5 87.6 82.9 22.8 23.7 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------