***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 26.6 25.3 25.2 1.2 66.9 61.8 23.3 24.5 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 26.6 25.9 25.2 1.3 66.8 62.1 23.6 24.6 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 26.5 25.8 25.5 1.3 66.8 61.5 23.2 24.6 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.2 22.8 1.1 64.5 59.8 15.9 17.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.8 23.2 0.9 61.4 58.3 23.8 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 23.8 23.9 20.5 0.6 58.6 55.7 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 26.2 25.7 25.1 1.1 67.2 61.8 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.2 21.0 0.5 57.2 54.2 11.3 12.8 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.3 23.6 1.0 62.1 59.0 22.9 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.8 22.0 0.7 59.4 56.4 22.4 24.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.4 22.8 0.8 60.2 57.4 23.2 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.2 22.2 0.6 58.5 55.6 22.4 23.9 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.4 21.4 0.6 58.0 55.0 23.5 24.7 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 24.9 25.1 23.1 0.7 61.7 56.8 22.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 26.0 26.1 23.9 1.3 69.9 62.6 24.3 25.5 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.1 26.2 22.3 0.8 60.2 56.9 23.6 25.8 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 26.0 24.8 25.0 1.2 66.3 61.5 23.0 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.0 24.0 21.4 0.6 57.0 55.0 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 26.1 25.8 25.4 1.4 67.7 62.5 22.7 24.2 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.2 19.0 18.5 0.2 53.5 51.7 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.1 25.5 24.6 1.1 62.8 59.5 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 26.4 25.5 24.8 1.1 64.7 60.6 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 26.4 26.3 25.5 1.5 68.8 62.7 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.8 23.2 0.8 60.1 57.3 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 26.2 26.0 23.5 1.2 64.6 60.8 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.2 21.5 0.9 63.6 57.6 23.0 24.6 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 25.9 24.7 24.3 1.2 65.2 61.3 23.3 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.2 23.0 1.0 64.7 59.5 24.3 25.8 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.0 18.7 20.3 0.4 54.7 53.2 17.5 18.4 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 26.3 25.9 25.3 1.3 67.8 62.2 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------