***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 25.8 26.4 25.0 2.2 75.8 70.9 22.9 24.3 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 25.9 26.3 25.1 2.4 76.9 72.2 23.5 24.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 25.4 25.7 25.2 2.2 73.5 69.6 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 18.2 18.3 22.4 1.8 69.9 67.6 15.6 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 24.8 25.7 22.7 1.6 65.4 64.6 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 23.1 23.6 20.0 1.1 61.5 60.6 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 25.3 25.5 25.0 2.3 76.6 71.9 23.0 24.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.0 20.4 1.0 58.5 59.1 10.9 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 24.9 25.3 23.1 1.7 65.5 65.0 22.2 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 24.1 24.3 21.4 1.3 61.0 61.6 22.4 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 24.2 24.7 22.2 1.4 62.7 62.5 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 23.0 23.4 21.6 1.2 61.1 60.9 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 24.2 24.8 20.9 1.2 61.8 60.9 22.7 23.9 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 24.8 25.3 22.6 1.4 63.5 62.7 23.0 24.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 25.9 26.3 23.6 2.2 76.3 71.5 22.9 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 24.6 25.4 21.8 1.4 63.1 62.5 23.5 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 25.0 25.1 25.0 2.5 76.4 72.5 23.1 24.5 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 23.4 23.9 20.8 1.1 60.4 60.3 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 25.3 25.6 25.3 2.5 77.4 72.1 23.1 24.5 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.8 18.7 17.9 0.8 56.8 57.1 16.9 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 25.0 25.3 24.2 1.9 68.3 66.7 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 25.7 25.9 24.7 2.3 75.6 71.2 23.6 24.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 25.9 26.2 25.2 2.4 76.2 71.1 23.3 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.0 24.9 22.7 1.5 64.3 63.6 22.1 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 25.3 25.5 23.2 2.1 74.3 69.9 23.2 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 23.5 24.0 21.0 1.5 66.7 63.8 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 25.4 25.6 24.1 2.2 75.5 70.7 23.2 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 25.1 26.2 22.6 1.7 68.8 66.6 23.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 19.0 19.0 19.7 0.9 58.3 58.3 16.8 18.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 25.9 26.2 25.1 2.4 76.9 71.8 23.2 24.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------