***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 26.1 27.0 24.5 2.9 83.5 78.8 22.1 24.4 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 26.4 27.7 24.8 3.2 86.5 81.0 22.8 24.9 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 26.5 27.5 24.7 3.0 82.8 78.7 22.8 24.9 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 18.9 19.6 20.9 2.0 77.6 71.6 15.5 16.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 26.5 27.0 22.1 2.2 76.4 72.4 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 24.8 24.3 18.7 1.1 67.6 62.2 21.7 23.5 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 26.0 26.9 24.6 3.0 85.0 79.7 22.8 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.2 19.5 1.5 70.7 66.2 11.6 13.0 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 25.9 26.9 23.0 2.4 78.6 74.3 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.9 20.9 2.0 74.1 69.8 22.4 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 26.0 26.2 22.0 2.0 75.6 70.8 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 24.5 24.8 20.6 1.7 73.3 68.0 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.8 20.7 1.5 74.0 67.0 23.3 24.5 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 26.2 26.8 22.7 2.5 77.1 73.7 22.3 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 26.7 27.2 22.8 2.0 77.0 72.0 23.7 24.6 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 26.5 26.7 21.2 1.7 74.8 68.8 23.3 24.7 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 25.9 26.7 24.7 3.3 87.5 81.0 22.5 23.8 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 24.8 25.7 20.1 1.9 72.0 68.8 21.5 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 26.1 27.0 25.0 3.4 87.7 81.9 22.3 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.0 20.0 17.3 1.3 65.7 63.7 17.7 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 26.1 26.9 24.0 2.5 78.4 75.1 22.3 24.4 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 26.3 27.3 24.5 3.3 86.8 80.4 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 26.5 28.0 25.1 3.6 88.2 82.8 22.6 24.8 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 25.4 26.0 22.6 2.4 76.2 73.6 21.8 24.2 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 26.3 26.9 22.8 2.5 80.0 75.7 22.4 24.5 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 24.5 24.9 19.6 1.5 74.0 66.9 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 25.9 26.6 23.7 2.7 82.2 77.4 22.6 24.5 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 26.8 27.5 21.4 1.8 75.2 69.3 22.3 24.4 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 20.0 20.8 19.1 1.6 68.8 66.8 17.0 18.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 26.3 27.4 24.8 3.1 85.3 80.5 22.4 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------