***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 25.1 26.2 23.9 3.1 89.9 85.3 20.1 22.9 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 24.9 26.3 24.4 3.4 89.0 86.1 21.4 22.6 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 24.7 25.7 23.8 2.9 85.5 82.4 20.8 22.8 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 17.4 18.3 19.7 2.2 81.8 77.5 13.6 14.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 24.6 25.4 21.1 2.1 80.6 75.9 20.5 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 22.6 22.3 17.5 1.1 66.7 64.9 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 24.6 25.4 24.2 3.4 90.3 86.0 20.8 21.8 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 11.8 12.1 17.9 1.1 68.1 65.6 8.5 10.6 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 24.2 25.2 22.2 2.3 81.7 78.0 19.9 22.3 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 23.4 23.9 19.6 1.6 72.3 69.8 19.9 21.9 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 24.0 24.5 21.1 1.8 77.0 73.0 20.1 22.2 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 23.1 23.0 19.2 1.5 73.1 69.8 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 24.1 24.0 20.0 1.4 71.8 69.1 20.4 22.3 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 24.1 24.7 22.0 2.1 79.5 75.6 21.8 22.6 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 24.9 25.7 22.4 2.4 85.1 79.9 21.0 22.1 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 24.3 24.7 20.1 1.6 75.4 70.9 20.9 23.1 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 24.2 25.4 24.2 3.6 90.2 86.1 20.7 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 22.8 23.2 18.5 1.3 70.2 67.4 19.5 21.8 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 24.4 25.2 24.4 3.5 89.8 86.8 21.0 22.3 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 16.7 17.6 15.8 0.8 63.4 61.4 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 24.6 25.1 23.3 2.5 82.7 79.2 20.1 22.6 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 24.7 25.6 24.1 3.4 89.4 85.5 21.6 21.8 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 24.7 26.4 24.5 3.7 91.8 87.8 21.2 22.7 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 24.0 24.5 21.7 2.0 78.2 74.8 20.5 22.2 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 24.4 25.4 22.4 2.8 85.8 81.9 20.5 21.8 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 23.2 23.7 18.1 1.4 72.4 69.2 20.0 21.4 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 24.6 25.3 23.2 3.0 87.4 84.0 20.3 22.2 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 24.5 25.6 20.4 1.9 79.1 74.5 20.9 22.1 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 17.7 17.9 17.6 1.1 67.1 64.8 14.8 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 24.6 26.0 24.3 3.3 89.5 85.7 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------