***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 12.4 13.3 14.2 1.6 88.2 81.9 11.4 11.7 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 12.5 13.2 14.1 1.7 88.9 83.5 11.2 11.8 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 14.4 14.8 14.3 1.7 89.0 83.6 12.8 13.2 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 9.5 9.9 11.3 1.4 85.7 81.0 7.8 8.1 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 10.9 11.4 11.7 1.4 85.8 81.2 9.9 10.3 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 9.6 9.8 9.0 1.2 83.0 78.0 8.7 9.1 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 12.4 13.3 14.2 1.8 88.4 84.1 11.3 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 4.8 5.1 9.1 1.3 85.6 80.5 3.4 3.9 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 11.8 12.4 12.0 1.5 87.9 83.5 10.8 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 11.8 12.2 10.2 1.4 86.6 81.8 10.6 11.1 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 11.5 12.0 11.1 1.4 87.7 83.0 10.2 10.8 11.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 9.6 10.0 9.9 1.3 86.1 81.0 8.7 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 10.9 11.1 9.6 1.1 84.7 78.9 9.9 10.5 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 12.6 13.1 11.7 1.4 87.5 82.0 11.1 11.7 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 12.4 13.5 12.7 1.6 89.6 84.6 11.6 12.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 12.1 12.4 10.4 1.2 85.2 79.9 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 12.7 13.5 13.9 1.7 88.8 83.6 11.5 11.9 12.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 10.3 10.7 9.4 1.3 85.5 81.2 9.0 9.5 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 12.8 13.2 14.2 1.9 89.8 85.0 11.2 11.6 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 6.4 6.8 7.2 1.1 83.2 78.6 5.1 5.6 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 11.8 12.5 13.3 1.5 87.8 82.3 10.8 11.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 11.9 13.0 13.9 1.8 89.7 85.0 10.8 11.0 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 12.4 12.8 14.1 2.0 91.0 87.5 10.7 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 11.8 12.6 11.6 1.5 87.6 83.0 10.7 11.1 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 12.3 12.7 12.8 1.5 86.3 80.3 11.0 11.4 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 10.5 10.7 9.1 1.2 84.3 79.0 9.6 10.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 12.8 13.2 13.5 1.5 86.1 80.7 11.5 12.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 10.5 10.7 11.6 1.4 85.7 80.7 9.7 10.0 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 9.3 9.8 8.7 1.3 85.8 81.1 7.6 8.1 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 12.7 13.2 14.3 1.8 88.9 84.0 11.3 11.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------