***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 13.6 13.8 14.5 1.5 73.9 68.9 10.9 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 13.2 13.4 14.5 1.6 74.2 70.4 11.3 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.6 14.7 1.7 76.5 72.6 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 9.9 10.5 11.8 1.4 75.5 69.9 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 12.1 12.4 11.8 1.3 72.5 69.2 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.9 9.6 1.2 74.7 68.6 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 13.4 13.8 14.5 1.6 75.8 70.5 11.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 5.6 6.0 9.5 1.3 72.9 69.5 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.2 12.1 1.4 72.1 70.1 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 12.7 13.0 10.5 1.3 73.0 69.9 10.7 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 12.3 12.6 11.2 1.4 75.3 70.3 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.6 11.2 10.2 1.3 74.8 69.9 8.7 9.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 11.9 12.2 9.7 1.1 74.5 67.2 10.2 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 13.4 13.5 12.1 1.5 75.3 71.2 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 13.6 14.2 13.1 1.5 78.9 72.7 11.8 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 12.8 13.0 10.6 1.2 76.3 68.8 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 13.7 13.8 14.3 1.5 72.8 69.6 11.1 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 11.3 11.6 9.7 1.3 75.0 70.4 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 13.5 13.8 14.5 1.7 76.1 72.4 10.6 12.4 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 7.5 7.4 7.5 1.2 70.1 67.2 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 12.8 13.2 13.6 1.4 72.4 69.6 10.5 11.8 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.1 14.2 1.7 75.3 71.8 10.1 12.1 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 13.1 13.4 14.4 1.9 79.7 75.3 10.5 12.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 12.9 13.4 11.9 1.5 77.6 72.8 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 13.2 13.6 12.9 1.3 72.2 67.1 10.6 12.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.5 12.0 9.6 1.3 77.3 71.2 9.7 10.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.5 13.7 1.4 72.9 67.8 11.0 12.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 11.4 11.8 12.1 1.4 77.0 70.6 10.1 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 9.8 10.0 9.0 1.3 74.0 69.7 7.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 13.7 13.7 14.6 1.6 75.5 71.1 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------