***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 12.9 13.2 13.7 1.6 77.3 73.5 10.7 11.9 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.8 13.6 1.8 81.2 75.8 10.3 12.0 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 15.0 15.6 13.7 1.6 78.8 75.0 12.4 13.6 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.3 10.0 10.4 0.9 67.2 66.2 7.5 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.9 11.0 1.1 70.3 68.5 9.1 9.5 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.5 8.0 0.5 59.5 60.0 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 13.2 13.9 13.6 1.8 81.1 76.1 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 5.4 5.0 8.3 0.9 69.9 67.2 3.4 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 11.9 12.4 11.2 1.2 72.8 70.9 10.5 11.0 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 12.1 12.3 9.4 1.0 71.4 68.6 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 11.8 11.8 10.3 1.0 71.3 68.5 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.0 9.7 9.1 0.8 69.0 66.5 8.0 9.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.7 8.7 0.4 61.5 58.7 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 12.5 12.8 11.1 1.2 74.4 71.3 10.8 11.6 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 12.3 12.3 11.7 0.9 68.8 66.8 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 12.9 12.0 9.5 0.6 65.4 62.0 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 13.4 14.2 13.4 1.8 80.3 76.5 10.8 12.0 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.1 8.7 0.9 69.6 68.0 8.0 9.6 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 13.3 14.2 13.7 1.9 83.8 77.8 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.2 6.6 0.8 65.7 65.3 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.5 12.6 1.3 74.0 71.2 10.3 11.2 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 12.6 13.4 13.5 2.0 83.0 79.2 9.7 11.2 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 12.7 13.8 13.6 2.0 87.1 80.6 10.4 11.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.1 12.1 10.9 1.2 73.6 70.6 9.9 11.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.8 12.3 1.3 74.2 70.0 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.6 8.1 0.4 59.6 59.2 8.7 10.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 13.2 13.6 13.0 1.4 75.0 70.7 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.4 10.6 0.7 64.6 63.2 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 9.5 8.9 8.0 1.0 69.8 68.8 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 13.2 13.9 13.8 1.8 81.8 76.2 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------