***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 12.2 13.9 13.8 2.9 92.6 89.3 9.0 10.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 11.9 14.2 13.7 3.0 94.5 90.8 9.6 10.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 13.9 15.0 13.8 2.8 92.0 89.2 10.4 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 8.9 10.3 11.0 2.9 95.4 91.7 5.7 6.1 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 10.4 11.8 11.8 2.8 92.8 90.3 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 9.4 10.6 8.5 2.4 92.8 91.0 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 12.2 14.2 13.8 3.2 95.6 91.9 9.2 10.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 3.8 6.2 8.9 2.7 93.4 90.9 1.7 2.7 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 11.4 13.3 12.1 3.0 95.3 92.6 8.7 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 11.0 12.4 10.2 2.8 95.2 92.0 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 10.6 12.8 11.4 3.0 97.0 93.9 8.0 9.3 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 8.9 10.1 9.9 2.7 92.7 90.9 6.8 7.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 10.3 11.8 9.8 2.5 95.7 91.5 7.8 8.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 11.7 12.4 11.4 2.5 91.3 89.2 9.2 9.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 12.4 14.9 12.6 3.1 99.6 95.9 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 11.9 13.7 10.5 2.6 95.3 91.6 8.9 9.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 12.0 13.7 13.4 3.0 95.4 90.9 9.6 10.8 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 9.4 10.6 9.3 2.5 92.5 89.9 6.4 8.5 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 12.3 13.4 13.8 3.1 94.5 91.5 9.3 10.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 5.9 6.9 7.3 2.4 91.5 88.7 3.4 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 11.0 12.5 13.1 2.8 93.7 91.3 8.3 9.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 11.4 13.0 13.7 3.0 95.4 91.5 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 11.9 12.8 13.8 3.2 94.9 92.3 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 11.3 12.4 11.5 2.6 92.4 90.1 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 11.6 13.6 12.9 2.9 92.8 88.7 8.9 9.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 10.3 11.1 8.7 2.3 88.1 87.1 7.7 8.4 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 12.5 14.2 13.3 2.8 92.5 88.6 9.4 10.7 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 10.1 11.9 11.3 2.8 96.0 92.7 7.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 8.7 10.1 8.5 2.5 92.8 90.1 6.0 7.2 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 12.1 14.0 14.0 3.1 94.3 91.1 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------