***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 57.2 101.9 57.0 51.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 38.8 65.7 60.8 105.9 61.0 51.8 39.5 61.0 67.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 65.0 61.5 58.0 107.6 58.6 52.8 40.6 58.1 74.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 58.0 78.1 68.1 99.1 58.8 48.8 55.5 73.8 85.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 48.4 62.2 67.2 101.1 56.8 49.7 50.4 58.7 74.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 46.7 59.3 89.2 99.4 52.0 50.1 49.1 58.5 67.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 56.0 56.2 60.5 100.0 59.0 49.2 26.9 50.4 64.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 71.6 104.6 71.0 101.7 57.6 51.8 73.2 94.0 109.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 42.2 54.9 64.0 103.3 57.7 51.2 41.7 50.3 60.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 53.5 70.4 73.3 104.0 59.7 52.3 53.7 64.9 75.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 39.0 49.3 63.3 101.6 58.8 50.5 40.2 47.5 51.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 41.4 55.1 58.7 98.7 55.3 49.8 45.1 53.1 66.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 34.9 50.1 71.6 95.8 53.3 47.8 40.3 47.9 56.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 51.6 85.0 69.3 108.4 61.3 52.4 51.1 69.5 93.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 39.5 49.6 59.6 95.4 56.5 47.2 41.0 46.2 54.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 40.3 53.7 66.9 96.3 54.3 47.8 37.0 51.7 67.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 34.3 50.8 59.1 102.3 58.9 49.7 36.3 44.0 57.9 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 56.2 74.7 80.1 106.0 60.3 52.9 56.0 67.0 79.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 36.7 72.3 60.1 110.1 63.0 53.6 39.1 51.7 79.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 46.6 66.6 88.3 102.5 55.8 52.2 46.4 63.2 89.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 57.8 58.7 57.4 104.3 56.8 52.1 49.5 54.9 61.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 57.4 61.1 56.5 103.0 59.0 50.3 34.5 48.2 66.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 52.0 56.5 60.5 114.3 63.6 55.0 31.9 47.1 57.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 75.7 76.9 69.7 108.9 60.6 53.5 56.8 71.8 78.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 62.7 58.6 70.4 99.0 53.9 49.4 40.9 57.3 71.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 37.1 54.5 65.6 94.1 49.7 46.9 42.9 54.7 61.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 62.6 60.9 66.9 99.1 53.5 49.9 38.0 57.3 70.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 40.9 54.6 64.0 96.2 56.6 47.6 41.7 49.7 59.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 69.0 92.9 81.2 104.8 58.3 52.2 71.5 86.8 96.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 35.1 50.2 60.1 105.3 58.9 51.6 28.9 45.0 69.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------