***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.6 126.4 70.1 57.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 27.9 35.2 16.4 131.9 73.2 58.2 5.7 9.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 21.3 28.9 15.1 142.6 71.3 60.2 6.2 17.2 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 9.4 26.2 15.0 104.0 62.4 50.9 10.0 14.8 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.0 24.7 15.8 120.3 69.5 55.0 9.7 13.8 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.2 16.5 21.2 102.0 57.4 51.2 11.6 15.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.9 12.2 15.7 118.5 66.2 55.6 3.5 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 18.4 41.4 19.0 132.9 71.4 58.7 20.4 24.9 38.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 18.0 22.5 15.7 130.0 68.7 58.4 6.0 15.8 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 19.8 29.2 18.9 131.6 70.3 59.5 9.2 16.5 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 8.4 22.8 15.4 126.6 70.2 55.3 8.5 15.3 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.9 21.1 15.0 130.0 69.7 55.6 10.8 14.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.1 19.0 17.6 114.9 62.3 53.6 8.3 13.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 40.7 46.0 19.5 142.7 72.6 63.1 13.6 20.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.5 13.5 12.2 89.4 60.1 47.9 4.3 10.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.0 20.9 16.3 115.2 63.6 52.8 6.7 12.4 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.4 18.3 15.8 122.0 68.6 54.4 4.1 9.5 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 21.7 31.2 21.5 133.4 71.8 62.0 12.0 18.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 24.0 29.8 16.2 141.3 76.4 59.9 3.9 8.1 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.2 23.3 24.8 131.0 68.0 62.0 8.5 14.4 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.5 20.5 13.8 134.6 67.6 58.5 6.5 14.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.4 17.1 15.4 124.1 67.5 54.9 4.9 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 21.1 27.9 16.2 149.6 78.6 62.5 6.2 10.3 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 25.7 28.8 18.7 141.6 74.5 62.7 13.1 20.5 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.7 20.2 15.8 106.1 61.6 51.6 6.3 16.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.4 18.6 16.2 112.7 64.5 54.7 4.8 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.8 17.4 15.4 110.4 63.4 53.2 5.3 11.6 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.1 15.9 14.3 99.4 62.3 50.2 6.2 14.7 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 27.8 36.6 22.1 129.5 71.2 61.0 14.3 23.9 34.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.6 24.5 15.9 133.2 70.9 58.4 6.1 9.1 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------