***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.6 109.2 60.2 44.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.8 11.2 16.5 120.0 68.3 48.0 4.6 7.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.3 15.1 14.8 126.7 69.0 46.9 5.9 10.0 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.6 19.7 18.6 113.4 64.8 47.7 8.2 12.7 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.5 15.7 17.9 113.0 61.6 48.5 6.5 13.0 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.0 13.2 23.1 97.4 56.7 47.7 4.3 10.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.6 11.0 16.0 107.0 63.9 46.3 3.7 7.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 23.1 29.3 18.6 111.2 63.8 51.2 14.8 19.8 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 5.5 12.1 16.7 113.8 57.9 48.5 6.3 10.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 8.3 19.4 19.2 114.6 61.7 50.1 11.2 15.1 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.9 12.8 16.9 113.4 62.2 49.2 5.1 9.4 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.9 15.6 15.3 106.1 61.5 49.3 5.2 11.4 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.8 10.1 18.8 97.7 55.7 47.5 4.3 7.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 8.3 17.8 17.0 115.2 66.9 47.0 9.4 13.3 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.4 15.7 16.6 115.9 64.1 47.1 5.6 7.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.6 17.5 102.9 54.7 47.6 3.4 6.8 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.8 10.1 15.7 106.4 63.3 45.9 5.4 6.8 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.4 16.0 20.5 116.4 63.2 49.8 7.8 14.4 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.5 13.9 15.9 127.3 70.1 48.4 4.8 9.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 23.4 113.1 60.6 52.2 8.3 15.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 5.4 11.0 14.1 113.5 61.6 46.6 6.2 9.7 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.4 10.7 14.5 110.0 64.2 46.0 6.1 8.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.6 12.7 15.2 129.5 69.6 48.0 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.8 16.9 17.4 121.0 66.1 47.7 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 5.1 18.8 17.8 106.2 64.1 46.3 5.9 9.4 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.3 17.9 19.0 115.2 63.5 50.6 7.1 11.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 5.6 14.7 16.2 102.2 59.2 45.4 7.1 12.3 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.6 16.3 17.4 112.3 62.6 47.5 5.0 10.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 21.7 25.8 20.8 114.9 61.8 50.4 11.9 19.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.7 13.7 16.1 122.1 70.7 47.6 7.0 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------