***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 75.0 53.7 43.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 6.1 10.2 12.4 67.7 50.1 40.6 7.0 10.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.2 11.9 12.7 75.2 55.4 42.4 7.0 11.0 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.5 17.1 17.3 90.2 60.2 44.2 4.7 11.8 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.1 11.9 16.0 85.1 54.7 42.0 4.4 9.8 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 5.5 10.0 24.5 98.3 56.0 46.6 6.1 9.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.8 9.5 12.8 66.2 46.7 41.4 3.8 10.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.3 21.3 16.0 83.4 54.0 41.2 15.2 20.2 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.1 8.7 14.5 80.7 48.5 41.2 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.7 14.2 16.2 82.0 51.4 40.6 9.5 13.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.9 9.1 14.8 84.7 56.2 42.1 3.0 5.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.4 9.6 14.2 86.3 58.4 42.3 5.4 8.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.2 8.7 18.7 88.3 55.9 42.9 3.1 7.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.9 18.2 14.4 80.1 57.9 41.7 7.4 14.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.5 7.4 16.1 88.5 59.7 44.0 1.7 5.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 5.1 12.4 17.6 88.2 57.1 43.2 6.4 10.1 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.8 11.9 67.7 47.2 41.9 5.2 7.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.7 13.7 17.7 83.5 52.4 41.0 7.9 13.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 5.9 11.8 12.3 71.8 53.9 41.5 9.7 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 6.9 10.1 19.9 81.6 46.1 39.3 6.8 11.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 6.5 12.5 13.0 78.4 52.0 41.4 4.2 12.3 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.9 12.6 11.7 73.0 52.2 42.5 5.7 12.3 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 7.1 16.7 12.6 79.0 59.1 44.1 8.8 13.5 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 7.7 15.6 15.2 82.5 57.7 42.6 11.5 13.6 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.2 6.2 16.9 81.8 50.7 42.7 3.4 6.2 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.2 6.1 15.3 76.9 45.2 38.7 3.3 6.4 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.8 14.5 15.9 77.8 50.2 42.9 5.2 14.4 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.7 9.2 16.9 89.4 60.7 44.1 4.5 7.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 11.7 19.3 17.9 83.4 50.1 40.4 12.1 19.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 6.1 12.1 12.6 68.3 49.8 40.9 8.2 12.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------