***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 16.6 110.2 61.3 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 8.0 15.6 120.4 66.9 57.0 2.7 4.6 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.4 12.0 15.4 104.6 61.9 54.0 2.0 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 15.5 17.2 91.9 54.5 50.1 8.4 14.0 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 11.8 17.5 93.6 53.7 51.0 3.0 11.5 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.5 16.2 20.3 100.4 56.9 51.7 7.2 12.7 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.1 10.7 16.0 124.0 68.4 58.4 3.6 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.7 21.3 17.4 88.8 55.0 49.9 10.4 16.8 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.3 17.1 99.3 59.2 53.8 3.8 8.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.7 19.0 97.1 58.3 53.3 5.0 11.6 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.7 16.1 91.0 55.7 50.5 6.6 9.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.0 14.2 83.2 52.8 47.6 4.9 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.4 9.5 16.6 87.1 51.9 47.5 2.9 9.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.0 18.4 105.2 63.1 54.5 4.1 8.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.7 14.8 90.3 59.8 49.6 4.9 8.3 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.0 9.9 15.5 84.5 50.4 46.4 6.7 9.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 15.0 15.7 125.7 69.9 57.3 3.4 5.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.9 16.1 20.4 99.0 61.4 53.2 3.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.1 16.6 15.8 116.9 66.1 56.3 3.9 11.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.8 20.2 91.2 57.2 50.2 5.7 10.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 13.7 15.1 16.5 104.7 60.3 54.9 2.9 11.9 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.6 10.8 15.0 112.8 64.4 54.0 4.6 6.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.3 16.4 114.8 67.2 57.3 4.2 7.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.6 18.9 18.4 102.7 63.4 54.2 7.3 12.9 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.2 20.0 106.3 59.7 54.3 4.4 10.8 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.7 15.1 80.0 51.8 44.9 4.6 6.0 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.6 19.4 113.7 62.9 57.3 5.2 13.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 5.1 9.3 15.5 87.1 54.5 48.1 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.6 19.8 20.4 97.8 60.7 52.6 9.1 16.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.2 11.6 15.5 115.1 66.2 56.3 1.8 7.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------