***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 25.0 0.3 55.9 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.3 25.1 0.5 63.1 57.7 23.6 24.6 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.5 25.0 0.2 56.4 53.0 23.2 24.6 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.9 23.1 0.2 53.3 52.5 15.9 17.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.7 25.4 23.0 0.0 52.3 50.7 23.8 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.8 23.7 20.7 0.2 53.0 52.2 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 24.8 24.9 25.1 0.6 63.3 58.4 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.7 21.2 0.1 49.4 50.7 11.3 12.8 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 24.9 24.9 23.4 0.1 52.9 50.6 22.9 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.9 24.7 22.0 0.1 50.9 50.5 22.4 24.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.2 22.6 0.1 52.4 51.0 23.2 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 24.1 24.0 22.1 0.1 51.1 51.1 22.4 23.9 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 25.0 24.9 21.6 0.1 53.3 52.0 23.5 24.7 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.8 23.2 0.2 56.8 52.6 22.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 25.7 25.8 23.7 0.5 56.6 56.7 24.3 25.5 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.0 22.2 0.1 53.2 51.7 23.6 25.8 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.7 25.0 0.7 64.4 60.0 23.0 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.0 23.7 21.3 0.2 53.4 51.4 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.6 25.1 0.4 61.5 56.4 22.7 24.2 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.2 18.9 18.9 0.2 52.3 51.7 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.9 24.3 0.1 52.8 51.4 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.4 24.8 0.6 63.4 58.5 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.1 24.9 0.3 59.6 54.4 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.6 23.1 0.2 54.8 51.7 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.3 24.9 23.4 0.2 53.2 53.7 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 24.8 24.7 21.4 0.1 52.7 51.1 23.0 24.6 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.6 24.1 0.3 56.9 55.0 23.3 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 26.0 25.9 23.3 0.2 54.1 53.3 24.3 25.8 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.9 18.6 20.2 0.2 53.8 52.0 17.5 18.4 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.3 25.2 0.4 62.4 56.3 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------