***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 24.5 0.8 64.2 58.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.2 24.8 1.1 64.1 60.6 23.5 24.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.3 24.5 0.8 62.2 57.7 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.6 18.2 22.6 0.7 65.3 57.9 15.6 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.4 22.5 0.6 62.0 56.8 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 23.8 23.8 20.3 0.7 65.9 58.1 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 24.7 25.0 24.7 1.2 65.0 61.6 23.0 24.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.1 20.7 0.6 60.5 56.4 10.9 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.1 24.6 22.9 0.6 60.9 56.5 22.2 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.3 21.5 0.6 60.8 56.3 22.4 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.6 22.0 0.6 60.8 56.6 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.2 23.4 21.6 0.6 59.8 56.6 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.8 21.1 0.7 60.6 57.3 22.7 23.9 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 24.8 25.2 22.8 0.6 60.7 56.7 23.0 24.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.7 23.2 1.0 66.2 60.2 22.9 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.4 21.7 0.7 62.4 57.1 23.5 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 24.7 24.7 24.7 1.4 66.6 63.0 23.1 24.5 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.9 20.8 0.6 60.1 56.5 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 24.7 25.0 24.8 1.0 63.4 59.5 23.1 24.5 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.8 19.0 18.5 0.7 60.7 57.0 16.9 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.8 23.8 0.6 62.8 57.0 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.2 24.5 1.2 64.4 61.2 23.6 24.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 25.0 25.5 24.5 0.8 62.8 58.0 23.3 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.5 22.7 0.6 60.3 56.4 22.1 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.2 22.9 0.8 65.0 58.7 23.2 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.8 21.0 0.8 63.7 57.5 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.8 23.6 0.8 65.2 59.3 23.2 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.8 22.8 0.8 65.6 58.3 23.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.0 19.0 19.8 0.7 60.2 56.8 16.8 18.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.3 24.8 1.0 63.9 59.8 23.2 24.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------