***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 21.6 -0.1 52.9 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.1 22.6 21.7 0.0 53.9 54.6 21.4 22.6 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 23.2 23.3 21.5 -0.3 53.3 51.7 20.8 22.8 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.7 19.5 0.5 61.6 60.9 13.6 14.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 23.3 23.3 19.9 0.1 58.1 55.6 20.5 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 22.6 22.1 18.0 0.7 64.8 64.4 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.5 21.6 0.0 54.4 53.7 20.8 21.8 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.1 18.0 0.2 59.5 58.0 8.5 10.6 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 22.7 23.0 20.7 -0.1 56.7 54.2 19.9 22.3 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 22.3 22.9 18.9 0.0 57.7 55.0 19.9 21.9 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 22.7 22.9 19.6 0.1 56.5 56.0 20.1 22.2 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 21.8 22.2 18.9 0.3 59.2 59.3 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 22.7 22.9 19.1 0.4 59.6 61.3 20.4 22.3 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.1 22.7 20.1 -0.5 50.3 48.8 21.8 22.6 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 24.5 25.5 21.7 1.2 76.6 70.4 21.0 22.1 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 23.4 23.3 19.5 0.3 57.8 59.4 20.9 23.1 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.0 21.5 0.2 56.3 55.9 20.7 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 22.1 22.2 18.0 -0.1 56.1 53.2 19.5 21.8 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.4 21.7 -0.1 52.6 53.8 21.0 22.3 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 16.7 17.5 16.0 0.2 61.3 58.0 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 23.1 22.9 21.3 -0.2 56.2 52.6 20.1 22.6 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.5 23.0 21.4 0.0 56.6 54.5 21.6 21.8 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 23.1 22.7 21.5 -0.3 51.3 52.4 21.2 22.7 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 22.7 22.5 19.9 -0.4 53.3 50.2 20.5 22.2 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 22.3 22.7 20.3 0.0 55.6 54.4 20.5 21.8 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 23.0 23.5 18.5 0.6 66.7 64.7 20.0 21.4 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 22.7 22.6 20.9 -0.1 53.8 53.3 20.3 22.2 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 24.0 24.2 20.5 0.8 66.6 64.5 20.9 22.1 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.2 17.2 0.0 58.3 54.1 14.8 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.8 22.7 21.8 -0.1 52.9 53.6 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------