***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 15.3 0.6 63.1 60.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 13.7 14.1 15.4 0.9 68.9 63.5 11.9 12.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 15.2 15.0 15.2 0.7 69.2 61.7 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.7 13.1 0.5 65.5 60.8 8.3 8.9 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.5 12.9 0.6 66.7 61.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.2 10.8 0.4 62.0 57.4 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 13.7 13.7 15.4 0.9 69.5 63.4 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.3 11.0 0.5 65.9 60.2 3.9 4.8 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 12.7 12.7 13.3 0.7 69.4 62.2 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.7 11.8 0.6 68.2 61.6 11.5 11.9 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.1 12.3 0.5 66.3 60.1 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.4 11.8 0.4 63.5 58.5 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.4 11.2 0.3 56.8 56.1 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.7 13.3 13.4 0.7 66.9 62.4 12.1 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 13.7 13.6 13.8 0.7 67.6 62.5 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.3 11.9 0.4 59.7 57.8 11.6 12.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 13.9 13.8 15.3 1.0 70.1 64.9 12.1 12.9 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.0 11.2 0.7 68.8 62.4 10.0 10.7 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.6 15.4 0.8 68.9 63.2 12.1 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.2 9.2 0.6 66.7 61.3 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.5 14.4 0.6 66.0 60.9 11.5 12.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.1 15.1 0.9 69.5 64.3 11.5 12.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.4 13.4 15.0 0.8 68.9 62.9 11.3 12.0 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 12.8 12.8 13.2 0.7 68.4 62.5 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.8 13.7 0.5 62.9 60.1 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.9 11.4 0.3 53.7 55.7 10.3 10.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.0 14.5 0.6 62.3 60.0 11.4 12.7 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.7 13.3 0.5 65.5 60.3 10.7 11.4 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.3 10.3 10.4 0.7 67.8 62.2 8.0 9.0 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.6 15.5 0.8 68.7 62.6 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------