***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 14.3 0.7 66.4 59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.1 14.4 0.9 69.4 62.3 11.3 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.1 14.0 0.7 67.0 59.7 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.9 12.2 0.7 63.2 60.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.7 11.9 0.6 62.1 59.0 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.3 10.2 0.9 64.6 63.3 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.0 14.4 0.9 70.2 62.2 11.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.6 10.0 0.7 64.7 59.2 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.7 12.3 0.7 64.3 59.2 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 12.7 12.6 10.8 0.7 65.8 59.1 10.7 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.4 11.3 0.6 61.9 58.9 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.7 10.9 0.6 62.9 58.8 8.7 9.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.8 10.4 0.6 63.5 59.3 10.2 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.9 12.2 0.6 61.5 57.3 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 13.4 13.4 13.0 1.0 67.7 63.7 11.8 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.8 11.1 0.6 61.9 59.4 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 13.6 13.7 14.3 1.0 68.9 62.6 11.1 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 11.3 10.1 0.7 67.5 59.0 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.6 14.3 0.9 67.8 61.3 10.6 12.4 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 7.4 8.3 0.8 69.9 59.9 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 12.9 12.5 13.3 0.7 66.1 59.2 10.5 11.8 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.8 14.1 0.9 67.5 60.9 10.1 12.1 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.9 13.9 0.8 65.8 59.5 10.5 12.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.8 12.0 0.6 63.5 58.1 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 13.3 13.3 12.8 0.6 65.6 58.6 10.6 12.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.4 10.6 0.7 67.0 59.6 9.7 10.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 13.6 12.6 13.5 0.6 65.0 58.9 11.0 12.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.4 12.5 0.8 64.3 61.6 10.1 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.7 9.3 0.7 67.2 59.0 7.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.4 14.5 0.9 69.8 61.7 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------