***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.4 -0.5 37.9 44.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.4 12.5 -0.3 42.1 46.3 10.3 12.0 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 11.8 13.0 12.2 -0.4 41.2 45.4 12.4 13.6 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.1 10.4 -0.3 43.8 46.6 7.5 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.9 9.4 10.2 -0.3 42.6 46.1 9.1 9.5 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.2 8.6 0.0 49.3 49.8 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.2 10.9 12.5 -0.4 39.9 45.7 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.6 4.2 8.4 -0.2 46.9 47.0 3.4 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.9 10.5 -0.3 43.7 46.5 10.5 11.0 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 9.7 11.1 9.1 -0.2 45.6 46.6 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.8 9.7 -0.2 47.2 47.2 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.9 9.0 9.3 -0.2 47.5 47.7 8.0 9.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.2 10.3 8.9 -0.1 48.9 48.0 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.5 11.3 10.4 -0.3 41.6 46.1 10.8 11.6 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.4 11.3 0.0 50.9 50.9 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.1 9.5 -0.2 48.0 48.0 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.4 12.3 -0.2 45.6 47.5 10.8 12.0 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 8.2 9.5 8.4 -0.2 44.2 46.7 8.0 9.6 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 10.4 11.4 12.4 -0.3 42.0 46.4 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.1 5.1 6.6 -0.2 43.7 46.5 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.4 11.5 -0.4 40.3 45.5 10.3 11.2 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.2 12.1 -0.2 45.1 46.8 9.7 11.2 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.8 12.0 -0.3 42.9 46.3 10.4 11.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.4 10.2 -0.3 42.8 46.6 9.9 11.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.5 10.9 -0.5 37.1 43.5 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 8.9 10.3 9.0 -0.2 47.5 47.2 8.7 10.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.0 11.7 -0.6 36.9 43.2 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.8 10.8 -0.2 49.2 49.1 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 6.5 8.2 7.6 -0.2 42.5 46.5 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 10.2 11.2 12.5 -0.4 40.1 45.5 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------