***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 0.8 74.2 68.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.8 11.9 0.6 73.4 66.7 9.6 10.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 47 53 100 13.1 13.7 11.9 0.7 72.9 67.6 10.4 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 8.5 9.0 10.4 1.4 77.5 76.0 5.7 6.1 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 9.9 10.3 10.3 1.1 74.7 72.2 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 9.2 9.3 8.5 1.4 75.6 75.5 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 11.4 12.1 12.0 0.7 73.0 66.7 9.2 10.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 3.5 3.8 7.9 0.9 76.5 73.0 1.7 2.7 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 10.8 11.3 10.6 0.9 72.9 71.1 8.7 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 10.6 10.9 8.8 0.9 73.7 70.7 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 10.2 10.6 9.6 0.9 74.3 71.1 8.0 9.3 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 8.5 8.9 8.6 0.9 75.4 72.4 6.8 7.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 10.0 10.3 8.8 1.1 74.7 72.7 7.8 8.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 10.1 11.5 10.2 0.4 65.0 62.7 9.2 9.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 12.3 12.6 12.0 1.9 84.5 81.9 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 11.3 11.8 9.5 1.1 73.6 72.7 8.9 9.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 11.6 12.0 11.7 0.7 73.6 67.5 9.6 10.8 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 9.0 9.0 7.9 0.7 69.1 67.0 6.4 8.5 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 11.7 12.1 11.9 0.6 73.0 67.0 9.3 10.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 5.3 6.1 5.8 0.8 75.7 69.3 3.4 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.9 11.7 0.9 74.5 70.0 8.3 9.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 10.8 11.1 11.6 0.6 70.3 65.2 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 11.3 11.2 11.7 0.6 71.7 67.7 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 47 53 100 10.7 11.1 10.0 0.6 67.3 66.2 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 11.1 11.3 11.3 1.1 74.7 71.8 8.9 9.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 10.1 10.1 8.3 1.0 73.4 72.4 7.7 8.4 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 11.9 12.3 11.6 0.9 73.5 69.0 9.4 10.7 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 9.8 10.2 11.0 1.6 80.0 78.1 7.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 8.1 8.4 7.2 0.7 72.3 66.8 6.0 7.2 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 11.4 11.9 12.1 0.6 71.9 66.6 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------