***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 55.0 58.9 72.6 104.7 59.0 52.3 39.4 49.1 64.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 58.8 60.9 63.5 102.0 55.6 51.0 36.6 52.6 63.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 62.4 64.4 76.7 111.3 62.5 55.2 42.0 54.3 75.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 75.0 79.3 90.8 116.9 66.7 57.6 55.5 66.4 79.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 63.3 75.5 93.4 124.7 74.8 61.2 50.6 58.7 69.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 62.8 72.3 98.8 112.2 63.6 55.9 49.5 58.1 73.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 28.2 44.2 60.0 97.4 50.8 48.4 26.9 41.2 57.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 122.5 129.5 107.1 126.0 76.0 64.1 75.2 98.2 110.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 42.0 61.2 93.2 120.3 69.1 58.8 43.6 49.9 60.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 86.3 92.0 111.2 124.9 73.7 62.4 49.7 65.4 77.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 61.3 68.5 93.3 127.0 77.1 62.8 39.8 47.8 62.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 73.5 77.7 89.3 123.9 74.8 62.0 48.5 61.8 67.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 54.6 64.9 98.9 123.1 71.8 60.9 38.4 48.9 59.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 82.1 86.8 103.0 113.4 65.7 56.2 51.4 72.3 87.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 41.1 53.3 78.3 111.7 64.6 54.5 39.8 47.0 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 52.6 71.5 92.1 121.6 72.8 60.0 39.7 44.4 67.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 34.8 46.1 55.8 91.2 46.4 44.2 38.1 47.5 60.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 57.2 83.8 116.1 121.6 73.3 61.2 56.9 66.5 72.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 69.6 72.5 68.4 106.7 59.2 54.0 39.1 60.3 81.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 84.1 93.7 112.4 122.7 73.5 63.3 47.2 63.7 90.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 57.0 61.9 85.8 118.1 67.3 57.5 43.2 54.0 61.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 36.6 48.1 62.7 98.4 51.0 49.0 31.5 47.1 68.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 56.1 61.2 75.4 112.0 64.1 57.5 36.0 48.7 63.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 55.1 79.4 102.3 118.9 70.5 59.0 55.4 68.2 78.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 59.8 69.3 89.0 114.3 66.9 56.5 37.3 54.6 67.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 40.7 62.8 84.2 114.2 64.5 57.0 45.6 51.4 63.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 65.6 67.8 79.2 106.2 61.3 53.0 36.6 60.8 70.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 43.2 60.9 87.5 114.2 66.7 55.9 41.7 52.4 60.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 110.5 107.6 115.5 122.2 73.2 62.0 76.4 88.4 96.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 32.8 56.4 66.1 104.0 57.8 52.2 29.1 43.2 68.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------