***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 6.3 15.1 14.8 88.3 56.1 47.5 5.9 13.1 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.7 11.5 12.9 83.0 56.8 46.3 4.3 9.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.9 18.8 14.7 90.5 57.2 46.2 6.5 13.6 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.7 24.9 21.0 115.9 69.7 53.3 10.8 17.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.8 14.6 19.0 113.9 67.0 52.4 6.8 11.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.5 21.5 107.0 61.2 52.7 10.2 14.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.0 8.5 12.1 79.5 53.6 44.9 3.0 7.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 15.5 34.6 21.9 120.7 68.3 55.6 17.3 24.6 33.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.7 16.9 18.7 107.8 62.0 49.4 8.0 14.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.0 25.5 22.1 111.7 64.5 51.9 10.2 15.2 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.1 17.7 17.6 114.6 68.0 53.4 6.6 11.1 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.7 18.7 18.4 120.3 67.6 55.3 9.3 13.6 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.8 20.0 108.0 61.7 52.7 6.2 12.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.8 24.9 20.1 91.6 58.5 46.7 13.3 18.0 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 18.7 19.3 114.8 70.2 53.6 4.0 10.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.0 18.5 18.7 111.3 66.2 53.4 6.6 11.5 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.6 9.7 11.6 77.2 51.5 42.5 4.1 9.6 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 12.2 19.7 23.9 108.3 65.0 52.3 15.9 17.9 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.2 13.6 84.8 57.8 46.6 3.0 6.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.7 23.0 23.4 113.3 66.3 56.2 9.7 12.9 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.1 17.7 107.0 63.6 49.8 5.5 13.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.6 12.1 13.1 84.2 55.9 44.2 5.4 11.2 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.1 14.3 14.1 84.2 58.1 45.7 3.6 9.5 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 11.4 23.6 20.2 100.8 61.7 48.7 13.1 20.7 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.1 19.3 18.8 100.0 61.8 49.5 6.0 13.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.8 17.3 18.2 114.0 64.8 53.5 5.9 10.4 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.8 16.1 88.6 57.4 47.4 4.8 9.3 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 9.0 17.2 20.6 115.8 69.8 53.5 8.2 14.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.6 30.6 24.2 111.6 65.5 54.4 14.7 23.1 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.6 11.5 13.2 84.5 56.9 46.8 6.1 9.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------