***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.7 16.9 94.1 58.9 49.0 12.4 14.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.7 10.6 15.6 94.6 54.9 48.0 5.0 9.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.8 14.8 19.0 106.0 62.0 50.1 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 9.7 24.7 20.3 101.0 62.1 50.2 9.9 14.7 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.7 24.6 21.2 109.5 66.5 50.6 11.7 14.7 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.7 15.7 23.1 98.6 58.4 48.8 6.0 12.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.9 14.3 86.7 51.8 45.4 3.4 10.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.6 31.7 24.3 115.9 66.8 51.9 13.0 20.5 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.8 15.6 22.7 114.2 65.3 50.6 5.4 11.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.4 19.7 25.9 115.6 66.2 51.4 11.5 14.8 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.1 16.6 20.4 113.0 67.6 51.5 5.1 12.5 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.0 18.8 20.6 114.1 66.8 51.8 8.1 15.3 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.0 13.2 21.7 106.3 63.2 50.9 5.4 9.4 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.3 18.0 25.6 111.2 61.7 52.8 9.5 14.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.5 18.6 18.3 97.5 60.9 50.7 5.9 8.9 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.0 16.5 20.3 104.5 63.5 50.0 5.8 10.8 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.4 7.0 13.7 84.7 53.1 44.8 4.3 6.6 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.3 15.4 27.9 114.8 65.9 52.8 7.8 11.9 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.3 15.0 17.3 102.7 59.6 49.9 4.8 9.2 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.2 20.8 26.1 114.5 67.3 51.3 8.4 14.7 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.5 17.3 20.3 108.1 62.6 50.8 7.2 9.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.7 16.5 100.3 60.7 49.9 5.6 9.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.3 13.5 19.6 112.2 63.3 51.9 6.1 8.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.2 17.2 25.1 114.1 63.5 53.0 7.4 12.7 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.0 13.9 19.5 97.5 60.4 49.2 6.6 9.6 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 7.4 13.6 18.9 101.2 59.7 49.0 7.1 10.7 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.6 17.1 18.0 93.4 58.8 48.0 5.0 14.6 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.5 16.4 19.4 95.8 59.3 49.4 9.4 13.6 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.7 28.7 27.3 114.9 66.9 52.5 14.3 21.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.6 16.4 96.8 57.0 48.5 5.9 10.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------