***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.2 16.8 96.7 59.6 50.2 5.9 7.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 9.5 14.3 92.9 57.7 47.8 4.0 7.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.2 18.7 18.1 104.9 64.1 51.2 4.5 8.9 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 21.9 23.5 120.8 69.2 55.7 4.5 12.2 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.7 17.4 22.8 119.0 68.1 55.1 3.2 6.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.9 23.6 106.7 61.4 53.7 7.3 9.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.4 13.5 88.7 55.3 46.4 2.8 6.0 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 24.9 26.8 28.7 143.5 76.3 62.9 11.9 16.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.9 15.4 24.5 124.4 70.3 57.5 4.2 9.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 18.6 21.7 29.8 144.9 76.1 62.3 9.1 12.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.2 16.9 24.8 129.9 73.1 58.3 2.6 6.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.0 12.7 23.2 126.9 72.2 58.9 2.9 7.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.1 23.8 115.9 65.4 56.6 3.0 5.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.3 20.9 26.6 120.1 71.0 54.0 3.7 10.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.0 10.9 22.0 125.9 71.7 57.5 1.5 4.1 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.8 13.4 23.5 118.5 66.6 56.7 8.0 9.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.2 12.5 82.0 49.7 42.9 4.0 7.2 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 21.9 26.6 31.6 140.1 78.4 61.6 7.6 13.2 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.8 15.9 100.4 61.5 50.1 4.1 9.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 20.2 27.7 31.7 148.1 79.5 65.2 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.0 14.4 21.1 115.2 68.1 55.0 2.0 8.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 6.6 12.2 14.3 85.2 51.6 43.8 4.1 11.5 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.4 16.0 18.4 111.9 66.4 53.4 3.6 11.4 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.4 20.1 27.0 124.0 72.9 56.7 9.1 13.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.5 20.0 98.8 59.2 49.4 2.4 5.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.0 7.0 19.6 100.8 57.2 51.2 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.9 12.6 18.4 95.7 57.2 48.9 5.2 10.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.7 11.0 23.3 125.5 71.4 56.7 4.6 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 22.9 26.1 32.3 141.0 77.4 62.6 10.3 15.5 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.4 12.7 15.1 96.1 59.9 49.3 5.8 11.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------