***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 17.6 21.4 24.1 140.1 75.3 65.8 8.3 10.3 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 15.3 17.1 20.7 140.0 75.8 66.0 3.7 7.5 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 19.4 24.1 24.9 143.0 77.4 65.9 5.2 11.4 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 22.9 23.1 25.9 130.2 71.5 63.0 8.2 14.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 23.2 30.4 30.3 155.0 79.4 69.6 3.8 12.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 21.5 22.5 30.7 135.0 73.6 65.0 7.2 12.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 13.3 14.3 20.1 137.2 75.8 64.9 4.8 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 26.3 36.6 32.2 124.5 70.4 60.6 14.9 22.6 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 21.9 25.7 27.2 132.9 73.6 63.3 5.0 10.5 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 19.4 18.3 33.4 127.9 71.5 61.6 10.8 13.9 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 16.8 19.4 30.4 147.7 77.4 66.7 6.3 10.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 20.5 23.1 27.1 132.8 73.7 62.8 7.0 13.9 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.9 18.3 33.4 160.6 82.5 70.4 6.9 10.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 21.8 23.6 30.7 129.4 72.6 63.3 7.1 12.4 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.0 18.1 18.6 110.1 66.2 56.9 5.0 9.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 17.1 18.9 29.6 150.5 77.8 68.5 5.5 12.4 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.6 18.1 18.1 122.4 70.7 61.2 4.3 8.2 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.9 22.4 32.7 124.7 69.4 59.9 8.7 15.6 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 22.8 25.1 21.5 140.4 75.4 66.0 11.4 16.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.6 21.9 31.2 117.7 69.4 58.5 6.2 14.2 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 24.1 27.3 26.6 140.6 75.3 65.6 4.3 15.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.4 14.6 18.8 125.8 70.1 62.3 5.8 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 19.1 24.3 23.3 140.1 75.3 65.9 6.8 8.4 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 27.0 30.5 30.0 134.9 74.7 63.3 7.6 17.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 22.9 33.2 30.6 163.1 81.7 71.1 6.3 12.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 18.1 21.3 27.3 140.7 75.7 65.5 5.0 10.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 20.2 24.7 26.8 149.2 78.4 68.1 6.5 12.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.1 18.0 24.3 120.4 68.8 60.5 6.7 12.6 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.0 27.5 31.7 121.8 69.3 59.0 12.5 18.0 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 20.6 27.2 21.5 140.1 77.3 66.1 3.3 9.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------