***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 22.4 23.2 21.5 -0.5 42.3 43.6 22.8 23.8 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.1 21.7 -0.2 50.7 48.3 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.3 21.7 -0.4 44.6 44.8 22.9 23.7 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 15.7 16.1 18.9 -0.4 42.6 44.5 15.6 16.9 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 22.8 23.2 19.4 -0.8 33.4 38.1 23.2 24.0 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 21.4 21.2 16.9 -0.9 30.0 35.3 21.3 22.5 23.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.6 21.7 -0.2 52.2 48.4 22.4 23.6 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 10.8 11.0 17.4 -0.9 32.7 36.6 11.1 12.0 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 22.1 22.7 20.1 -0.7 36.3 40.0 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 22.1 22.4 18.4 -0.8 34.2 38.1 22.4 23.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 22.3 22.7 19.3 -0.8 33.7 38.2 22.7 23.3 24.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 21.7 21.9 18.6 -0.7 37.0 40.7 21.7 22.7 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 22.7 22.9 18.5 -0.7 36.3 39.6 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 22.5 22.5 19.6 -0.9 33.0 37.3 22.5 23.7 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 24.5 24.1 20.8 0.0 50.1 49.6 23.1 24.1 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 23.0 23.2 18.9 -0.7 36.0 40.5 23.2 24.0 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 22.0 23.6 21.7 0.0 54.9 50.9 22.3 23.4 24.1 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 21.7 21.9 17.7 -0.9 33.2 37.1 21.9 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 22.2 23.3 21.7 -0.3 48.3 47.2 22.4 23.3 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 16.9 16.9 15.1 -1.1 28.8 34.0 17.0 17.9 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 22.5 22.7 20.9 -0.8 36.1 39.8 22.5 23.6 24.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.6 24.1 21.4 -0.2 51.4 48.3 22.8 24.0 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 22.3 23.3 21.5 -0.4 43.9 45.3 23.0 23.8 24.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 22.1 22.3 19.6 -0.9 34.5 38.1 22.3 23.2 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 22.5 22.8 19.8 -0.8 35.6 39.0 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 21.9 22.7 18.0 -0.4 41.7 44.4 22.2 23.0 23.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 22.3 22.9 20.6 -0.6 39.3 41.6 22.6 23.4 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 22.9 23.3 19.6 -0.2 44.9 46.8 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 17.0 16.8 16.7 -1.1 30.5 35.2 16.8 18.1 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 22.6 23.6 21.7 -0.3 50.0 47.6 22.6 23.5 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------