***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 26.7 26.3 25.4 1.6 70.3 64.0 23.6 24.5 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 26.8 26.3 25.8 2.1 72.6 67.1 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 26.4 26.0 25.8 1.8 71.4 65.1 23.9 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 18.2 18.2 23.1 1.5 72.3 62.9 16.6 17.6 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.4 25.7 23.3 1.2 66.1 60.7 24.4 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.5 24.0 20.6 0.9 61.7 57.2 22.6 23.3 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 26.3 26.1 25.7 2.0 72.0 66.9 23.3 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.6 21.4 1.0 62.8 58.7 11.8 12.5 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.2 23.6 1.3 67.2 61.1 23.1 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.8 25.0 22.3 1.2 64.2 59.7 23.2 24.5 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 24.9 25.3 23.0 1.2 65.1 60.4 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 23.9 24.4 22.7 1.3 66.2 60.8 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 25.4 25.4 21.8 1.2 65.3 59.9 23.6 25.3 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.4 23.3 1.1 64.6 60.4 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 26.0 26.0 24.1 1.7 73.7 64.0 24.9 25.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.1 26.3 22.6 1.3 66.7 61.0 24.4 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 25.7 26.1 25.8 2.2 73.8 67.9 23.1 24.0 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 24.0 24.6 21.8 1.2 64.1 59.6 22.7 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 26.1 25.8 25.8 2.0 72.5 66.5 22.5 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.2 19.2 18.9 0.8 60.6 57.0 18.1 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.6 24.6 1.3 67.3 61.6 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 26.3 27.1 25.4 2.0 72.7 66.8 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.0 25.5 1.8 70.6 65.3 23.4 24.9 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.6 25.0 23.4 1.3 66.2 61.1 22.8 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.3 25.6 23.4 1.2 66.7 61.2 23.6 25.0 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.3 22.1 1.7 70.8 62.9 23.0 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 25.9 25.4 24.4 1.4 68.6 62.8 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 26.2 26.5 23.3 1.6 72.2 63.2 24.6 25.5 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.6 20.7 1.0 62.3 58.4 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 26.2 26.1 25.7 2.0 72.0 66.7 23.6 24.7 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------