***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 21.7 23.1 20.5 -1.0 34.9 39.4 23.0 24.5 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 22.2 23.9 20.8 -0.7 39.9 42.1 22.6 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 21.9 23.2 20.6 -1.0 35.7 39.0 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 14.8 15.4 17.6 -1.0 33.2 37.8 15.4 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 22.3 22.7 18.2 -1.5 30.1 33.9 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 20.0 20.3 15.7 -1.6 26.6 32.3 21.6 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 21.4 23.6 20.8 -0.7 41.2 42.7 22.7 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 9.9 10.8 16.0 -1.7 28.0 32.3 11.3 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 21.9 22.1 19.0 -1.3 31.3 35.3 22.1 24.3 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 21.6 22.0 17.1 -1.6 29.3 33.5 22.2 23.9 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 21.6 22.2 18.2 -1.5 29.4 33.4 22.4 24.3 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 20.4 21.5 17.2 -1.4 30.8 35.0 21.7 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 21.4 22.4 17.4 -1.4 28.6 34.9 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 22.2 22.4 18.6 -1.5 32.0 35.9 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.1 19.9 -0.6 38.9 42.2 22.3 25.1 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 22.2 22.1 17.7 -1.4 28.6 34.6 23.5 24.9 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 21.1 23.1 20.8 -0.4 45.5 45.4 21.8 23.4 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 21.0 21.8 16.3 -1.7 29.9 33.0 22.0 23.3 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 21.4 23.1 20.7 -0.8 38.2 41.5 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 15.6 16.6 13.8 -2.0 26.6 31.1 17.2 18.5 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 21.9 22.5 19.9 -1.3 31.5 35.4 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 22.1 24.2 20.6 -0.5 44.4 44.4 21.9 24.7 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 22.0 22.7 20.5 -0.9 35.8 40.8 22.1 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 21.5 22.3 18.5 -1.5 30.7 34.4 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 21.8 22.5 18.9 -1.2 31.4 36.2 22.5 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 21.2 22.6 16.5 -1.2 33.4 36.9 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 21.8 22.8 19.8 -1.0 33.6 38.3 22.7 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 21.9 22.2 18.4 -0.9 34.1 38.8 22.0 24.5 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 15.9 16.3 15.4 -1.8 28.6 32.2 16.7 18.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 21.9 23.2 20.8 -0.8 39.4 41.4 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------