***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 95 5 0 100 19.0 17.8 16.4 -3.8 8.1 10.6 20.1 22.4 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 18.9 18.0 16.6 -3.7 8.6 12.3 20.4 22.5 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 19.2 18.3 16.4 -3.9 8.3 11.2 20.5 21.9 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 12.6 12.1 13.5 -3.5 8.4 12.0 13.2 15.0 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 19.8 18.8 14.3 -4.1 7.1 9.5 20.5 22.1 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 18.4 16.8 11.9 -4.1 6.3 9.4 19.1 20.8 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 18.9 17.9 16.6 -3.6 9.7 12.5 19.9 22.0 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 6.8 5.8 12.1 -4.1 7.6 10.0 8.1 10.4 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 18.7 18.2 15.5 -3.9 8.5 10.9 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 19.1 18.5 13.3 -4.1 8.4 10.5 19.8 21.1 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 18.8 17.9 14.6 -4.1 8.0 10.0 20.2 21.1 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 18.4 17.5 13.4 -3.8 8.3 11.4 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 18.9 17.9 14.2 -3.9 7.9 11.0 20.1 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 19.8 17.4 15.0 -4.2 6.3 10.1 20.7 22.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 19.7 19.4 16.7 -2.9 11.8 15.3 21.0 21.8 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 19.9 18.7 14.1 -3.9 7.3 10.7 20.6 21.8 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 18.6 17.9 16.5 -3.5 12.0 14.7 20.0 21.7 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 18.4 17.2 12.3 -4.3 7.3 9.6 19.7 20.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 19.1 17.3 16.6 -3.8 7.9 11.9 20.0 21.9 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 94 6 0 100 13.5 12.6 10.1 -4.4 6.2 8.8 14.7 16.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 19.1 18.2 16.1 -4.1 8.0 10.1 20.3 21.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 19.5 18.1 16.4 -3.7 9.6 12.9 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 19.8 17.7 16.4 -3.8 8.1 11.8 20.4 22.4 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 19.0 17.3 14.7 -4.3 6.8 10.1 20.0 21.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 18.9 18.1 15.1 -4.1 6.7 9.2 20.0 22.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 18.5 17.1 12.5 -3.8 7.8 11.7 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 18.9 18.0 15.8 -3.9 7.5 9.8 20.2 21.9 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 19.7 19.3 14.8 -3.2 10.6 14.0 20.8 22.1 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 13.3 12.2 11.6 -4.4 6.7 9.2 14.5 15.5 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 19.1 17.9 16.7 -3.7 8.7 11.9 19.9 21.9 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------