***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 10.8 11.4 11.8 -0.4 40.2 42.3 11.3 11.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 11.1 11.6 11.8 -0.2 46.8 46.8 11.2 11.7 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 12.5 12.9 12.0 -0.3 42.6 44.2 12.8 13.0 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 7.4 7.9 9.3 -0.3 40.5 43.4 7.5 8.1 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 9.2 9.9 9.5 -0.5 34.9 38.8 9.9 10.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 8.5 8.7 7.3 -0.3 40.7 42.0 8.6 9.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 10.9 11.5 11.8 -0.2 46.9 46.8 11.3 11.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.3 3.4 7.0 -0.5 35.2 38.3 3.3 4.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 10.4 10.8 9.8 -0.3 40.5 43.2 10.6 10.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.8 8.0 -0.4 36.9 40.2 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 10.2 10.5 9.0 -0.3 40.2 41.6 10.2 10.8 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 8.3 8.6 8.0 -0.4 38.5 40.5 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 9.8 10.0 7.9 -0.3 36.5 41.0 9.9 10.4 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 11.0 11.3 9.6 -0.4 37.8 40.4 11.1 11.7 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 11.2 12.1 11.0 0.1 56.6 52.9 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.0 8.6 -0.3 39.1 42.2 10.8 11.3 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 11.4 12.0 11.6 -0.1 49.9 48.3 11.5 12.0 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 8.6 8.9 7.3 -0.4 34.3 38.9 8.8 9.3 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.1 11.5 11.8 -0.2 46.4 46.2 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 5.0 4.8 5.1 -0.7 27.6 33.4 4.8 5.7 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 10.3 10.9 11.1 -0.4 40.2 42.2 10.8 10.9 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.9 11.5 -0.2 47.4 46.0 10.6 10.9 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 10.7 11.1 11.5 -0.3 44.2 44.8 10.6 11.2 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 10.5 10.8 9.5 -0.3 40.4 42.5 10.5 11.1 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 10.3 11.1 10.5 -0.6 33.3 38.2 11.1 11.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 9.3 9.5 7.3 -0.4 34.1 40.0 9.5 10.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 10.6 11.6 11.2 -0.5 36.7 40.4 11.5 11.7 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 9.2 10.1 9.9 -0.1 49.3 47.8 9.5 10.1 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.3 7.5 6.5 -0.6 31.4 35.9 7.6 7.8 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 11.0 11.6 11.9 -0.2 46.0 45.9 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------