***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2019.-02.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 13.7 13.8 14.8 1.0 67.9 62.0 11.6 12.7 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 13.7 13.6 14.8 1.2 72.1 64.4 11.5 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.4 15.0 1.1 72.4 64.5 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.1 12.2 1.0 69.8 62.2 8.0 9.4 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.9 12.0 0.7 66.0 60.0 10.5 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.4 10.0 0.9 70.2 61.3 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.9 14.8 1.1 71.4 63.6 11.6 13.2 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.4 9.7 0.7 65.0 59.0 3.7 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.6 12.2 0.7 66.9 60.5 11.5 12.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.6 10.6 0.7 66.3 59.4 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.3 11.4 0.8 67.7 60.6 10.8 11.8 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.5 10.5 0.8 67.9 60.8 9.3 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.7 10.1 0.7 66.9 60.3 10.5 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.0 12.2 0.8 67.3 61.3 12.1 12.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 13.9 13.7 13.5 1.1 74.5 63.8 12.1 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.7 11.0 0.9 68.9 61.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.8 14.7 1.2 70.8 64.2 11.9 13.2 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.1 9.8 0.7 68.2 59.6 9.9 10.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.7 14.8 1.2 72.5 64.8 11.5 12.9 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.9 7.5 0.5 61.7 56.4 5.8 6.7 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.6 13.8 0.9 67.9 61.9 11.4 12.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 13.4 13.4 14.4 1.1 71.2 64.3 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.1 14.5 1.1 71.7 64.6 11.8 12.4 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.9 12.0 0.9 70.5 62.1 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.4 13.3 0.8 65.1 60.5 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 11.2 11.3 9.8 0.8 69.2 61.3 9.9 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 13.7 13.5 14.1 0.9 66.7 61.2 11.5 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 11.9 12.1 12.5 1.0 71.7 63.0 10.7 11.0 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.9 9.0 0.6 64.0 58.1 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.8 15.0 1.2 72.7 64.2 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------