***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 13.7 12.6 13.2 0.6 59.7 58.9 11.1 12.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.8 13.2 0.8 62.9 60.6 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.4 13.4 0.7 63.1 60.6 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 9.8 9.6 10.7 0.6 60.0 60.3 7.6 8.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.3 10.5 0.4 57.5 58.1 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.3 8.7 0.6 61.4 60.6 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.7 13.2 0.7 61.9 60.4 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.7 8.3 0.3 57.2 57.0 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.1 10.8 0.5 58.0 58.4 11.0 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.1 9.1 0.3 57.2 57.2 11.0 11.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.8 9.9 0.4 57.8 57.9 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.1 9.1 0.4 59.0 58.1 8.5 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.5 8.7 0.4 58.8 57.5 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.4 10.6 0.3 57.6 56.0 11.7 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.1 12.0 0.7 62.0 62.2 11.7 12.4 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.4 9.5 0.5 60.3 58.9 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.0 13.1 0.8 62.3 60.6 11.4 12.5 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.5 8.4 0.3 57.3 57.2 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.1 13.1 0.7 62.8 60.2 11.2 12.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.6 6.2 0.2 55.4 54.8 5.7 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.2 12.3 0.5 59.0 58.5 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.0 12.7 0.7 62.1 59.2 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.3 12.8 0.6 62.7 59.4 10.9 11.7 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.0 10.5 0.5 60.0 58.3 11.1 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.0 11.6 0.4 56.1 56.7 10.9 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.0 8.5 0.5 63.2 59.9 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.6 12.5 0.5 57.3 57.5 10.9 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.1 11.0 0.7 62.6 61.5 10.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.8 7.6 0.2 55.6 55.6 7.6 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 13.4 12.6 13.3 0.8 62.2 60.7 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------