***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.2 10.4 10.6 -1.0 31.9 34.7 10.5 11.2 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.7 11.2 10.7 -0.6 39.3 40.6 10.0 11.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 12.0 12.2 10.9 -0.8 33.1 37.2 12.2 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 6.8 7.1 8.3 -0.7 34.3 37.0 7.1 8.6 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 8.8 8.7 8.7 -0.9 30.3 34.7 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.8 8.0 6.3 -0.7 31.8 35.6 8.1 9.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 10.2 10.8 10.7 -0.6 37.8 39.8 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 2.5 3.2 6.4 -0.6 34.7 38.6 2.9 4.2 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 10.0 10.3 9.1 -0.5 38.8 40.5 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.8 10.0 7.5 -0.5 37.2 40.2 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 9.6 9.7 8.4 -0.6 36.3 38.9 9.5 10.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 7.5 7.5 7.3 -0.6 33.3 38.2 7.5 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 9.0 8.9 7.1 -0.7 30.1 36.2 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.0 8.9 -0.5 39.3 40.2 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.9 10.1 -0.3 40.2 43.1 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 9.8 9.9 7.8 -0.7 29.9 35.8 10.0 11.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.2 10.7 -0.4 42.9 43.3 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.3 6.8 -0.6 37.1 39.8 8.1 8.9 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.1 10.7 -0.6 39.2 40.7 10.3 11.7 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.1 4.6 -0.8 30.4 36.2 4.2 5.2 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 9.7 9.9 10.2 -0.8 35.0 37.1 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.0 10.7 -0.5 41.7 42.6 9.9 10.6 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 10.1 10.4 10.6 -0.6 37.7 40.1 10.3 11.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.0 10.1 8.9 -0.5 39.5 41.4 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 9.9 9.8 9.4 -1.2 29.0 32.4 10.0 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 8.6 8.3 6.4 -0.8 29.3 35.2 8.5 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 10.2 11.0 10.0 -1.1 31.0 33.6 11.0 11.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.6 8.8 8.9 -0.5 37.6 39.9 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.8 7.6 6.0 -0.6 35.3 38.5 7.4 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 10.3 10.9 10.8 -0.7 36.7 38.8 10.5 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------