***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 8.0 7.9 8.6 -2.1 18.9 19.8 8.9 10.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 89 11 0 100 8.3 8.2 8.4 -2.1 17.9 19.2 9.1 10.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 9.7 9.5 8.6 -2.2 16.4 17.6 10.1 12.1 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 4.8 4.6 6.1 -1.9 17.9 20.4 5.3 6.7 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 93 7 0 100 6.3 6.2 6.8 -2.1 17.2 18.7 7.1 8.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 5.6 5.6 4.2 -1.9 18.5 19.0 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 8.2 8.4 8.5 -2.0 20.0 21.2 8.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 0.2 0.0 3.8 -2.3 12.6 14.9 1.5 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 7.6 7.5 7.2 -1.9 20.9 22.2 8.2 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 7.4 7.2 5.0 -2.2 15.3 18.0 8.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 7.3 7.0 6.5 -2.0 18.2 20.2 8.0 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 5.6 5.4 5.1 -2.1 16.0 18.0 6.8 7.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 7.0 6.9 5.7 -1.7 19.1 22.0 7.6 8.7 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 8.2 8.0 6.5 -2.2 13.7 16.0 9.1 10.0 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.4 8.5 -1.1 31.4 33.2 9.5 10.4 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 7.7 7.5 6.1 -1.8 19.1 20.9 8.7 9.5 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 9.0 8.8 8.2 -2.1 16.2 18.7 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 5.9 5.6 4.3 -2.3 13.5 15.5 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 8.6 8.4 8.4 -2.1 16.6 18.0 8.9 10.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 2.6 2.1 2.3 -2.5 10.0 12.1 3.4 4.1 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 7.5 7.4 8.1 -2.1 18.5 19.5 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 8.2 8.0 8.2 -2.2 13.0 15.2 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 8.2 8.1 8.2 -2.2 14.4 16.5 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 7.8 7.6 6.6 -2.1 15.8 17.7 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 7.7 7.8 7.7 -2.2 18.4 18.8 8.6 10.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 6.5 6.3 4.3 -2.1 15.4 17.1 7.5 8.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 8.1 8.3 8.2 -2.1 19.7 20.3 8.9 10.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 7.1 7.0 7.0 -1.6 23.4 25.7 7.5 8.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 4.3 3.9 3.4 -2.4 11.1 13.1 6.0 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 8.5 8.4 8.6 -2.1 18.2 19.0 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------