***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 70.6 122.6 73.3 60.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 69.8 72.0 71.6 128.1 74.2 64.5 36.6 52.6 63.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 77.7 83.4 70.9 125.9 74.3 64.2 42.0 54.3 75.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 75.4 79.2 79.7 114.0 66.4 58.3 55.5 66.4 79.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 70.8 73.8 81.1 119.2 72.9 62.1 50.6 58.7 69.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 62.8 73.6 104.7 110.3 65.3 57.0 49.5 58.1 73.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 49.6 68.1 72.2 124.3 72.5 62.1 26.9 41.2 57.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 122.5 136.7 96.6 133.7 78.9 68.9 75.2 98.2 110.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 68.4 65.8 79.1 120.7 71.5 62.1 43.6 49.9 60.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 87.3 93.1 91.7 124.4 74.4 64.4 49.7 65.4 77.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 61.1 67.8 79.3 124.6 75.5 64.7 39.8 47.8 62.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 74.0 80.9 85.2 136.6 79.3 69.1 48.5 61.8 67.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 64.4 72.0 97.7 125.5 76.2 64.3 38.4 48.9 59.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 98.3 99.4 88.0 126.0 75.6 66.3 51.4 72.3 87.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 51.1 56.2 76.3 118.9 66.9 58.9 39.8 47.0 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 52.6 72.7 86.7 122.4 73.7 63.2 39.7 44.4 67.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 53.8 68.4 71.5 128.4 72.1 63.9 38.1 47.5 60.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 83.7 81.7 98.2 121.7 72.1 63.3 56.9 66.5 72.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 86.2 97.6 70.6 128.2 75.1 65.5 39.1 60.3 81.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 70.3 93.9 113.3 126.2 74.6 66.5 47.2 63.7 90.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 62.4 64.8 69.9 119.5 71.5 61.0 43.2 54.0 61.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 66.9 71.9 72.3 132.5 75.8 67.1 31.5 47.1 68.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 68.8 75.4 71.3 126.6 75.4 65.7 36.0 48.7 63.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 77.9 80.4 85.0 122.2 72.2 63.8 55.4 68.2 78.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 41.4 68.2 78.2 109.8 66.5 55.0 37.3 54.6 67.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 63.1 70.8 95.9 135.0 77.4 67.5 45.6 51.4 63.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 43.7 74.0 78.2 115.9 69.3 57.6 36.6 60.8 70.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 56.7 61.6 80.4 119.0 67.9 60.7 41.7 52.4 60.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 109.8 102.8 100.9 123.1 71.8 64.6 76.4 88.4 96.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 67.5 73.1 71.9 127.4 74.1 64.2 29.1 43.2 68.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------