***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 15.9 124.5 73.8 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.7 28.5 14.7 126.7 71.9 58.9 4.3 9.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.2 23.8 15.2 126.3 72.4 56.1 6.5 13.6 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 20.2 25.4 17.7 121.6 71.1 55.0 10.8 17.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.5 16.3 17.6 125.7 71.4 55.4 6.8 11.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.3 20.5 23.2 112.1 69.0 57.0 10.2 14.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.6 21.4 15.4 126.6 73.8 58.8 3.0 7.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 29.6 34.0 18.4 120.9 67.5 56.4 17.3 24.6 33.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.6 18.5 17.4 129.0 71.4 55.3 8.0 14.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.9 28.7 19.0 124.0 69.1 56.3 10.2 15.2 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.6 17.7 16.0 121.4 70.7 56.3 6.6 11.1 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.7 19.0 16.0 122.0 68.0 56.1 9.3 13.6 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.4 17.1 19.6 116.9 68.1 56.4 6.2 12.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.5 30.9 17.7 114.0 64.9 56.5 13.3 18.0 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 20.9 16.0 121.5 73.2 56.1 4.0 10.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.8 20.9 17.9 121.3 70.5 57.1 6.6 11.5 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.2 19.7 14.5 130.5 74.2 60.6 4.1 9.6 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.2 21.5 21.2 121.3 69.5 56.2 15.9 17.9 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.1 26.9 14.2 124.2 70.0 57.9 3.0 6.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 16.1 22.9 22.5 115.4 65.5 55.9 9.7 12.9 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.9 19.0 15.3 125.2 71.5 54.8 5.5 13.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.7 16.1 13.9 131.4 71.3 60.2 5.4 11.2 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.2 21.8 14.1 117.4 69.1 56.6 3.6 9.5 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.7 26.0 18.2 120.2 69.9 56.1 13.1 20.7 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.6 20.0 18.3 117.3 69.6 53.6 6.0 13.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.7 17.8 17.4 119.9 66.3 56.5 5.9 10.4 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.1 17.8 18.5 122.1 70.2 55.5 4.8 9.3 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.6 17.6 17.1 122.8 72.6 56.3 8.2 14.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 27.2 31.2 21.0 115.2 66.6 55.3 14.7 23.1 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.4 21.8 15.1 125.8 71.2 57.4 6.1 9.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------