***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.2 117.6 66.0 52.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 5.3 13.2 15.9 111.0 64.8 49.7 5.0 9.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.8 15.4 15.1 114.5 64.5 52.9 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.5 24.0 18.2 101.1 61.5 52.2 9.9 14.7 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.7 19.7 17.8 102.5 61.7 52.3 11.7 14.7 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.1 15.7 25.2 97.1 58.0 49.9 6.0 12.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.5 12.9 16.2 106.7 62.2 48.1 3.4 10.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 14.5 29.0 21.3 112.3 61.6 55.0 13.0 20.5 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.4 14.7 17.2 106.2 63.0 51.5 5.4 11.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 10.1 18.1 20.5 109.8 62.6 53.6 11.5 14.8 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.8 15.7 17.1 101.1 62.1 52.1 5.1 12.5 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 7.9 17.2 18.1 108.9 61.8 54.2 8.1 15.3 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.0 13.1 21.5 101.8 62.3 51.9 5.4 9.4 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.9 21.4 19.9 123.9 71.1 56.1 9.5 14.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.8 19.2 17.1 103.2 65.4 52.5 5.9 8.9 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.0 16.1 18.6 97.3 62.0 51.0 5.8 10.8 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.1 15.5 105.1 63.3 48.8 4.3 6.6 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.0 22.7 113.3 64.3 54.5 7.8 11.9 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.9 17.7 15.5 115.4 66.4 51.4 4.8 9.2 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.8 19.7 26.9 111.4 63.5 55.0 8.4 14.7 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.3 17.6 15.0 108.1 63.4 51.8 7.2 9.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.7 11.1 15.7 113.4 65.5 51.3 5.6 9.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.4 15.8 15.7 121.1 68.1 53.9 6.1 8.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.4 18.6 19.0 116.1 67.3 54.5 7.4 12.7 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.3 16.3 19.5 110.6 62.6 52.8 6.6 9.6 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.7 11.9 19.2 99.5 55.7 50.5 7.1 10.7 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.6 20.0 19.5 116.4 67.4 52.5 5.0 14.6 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.8 17.3 17.5 99.4 62.6 51.1 9.4 13.6 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 26.5 26.9 23.0 112.3 64.6 54.5 14.3 21.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.4 13.3 15.9 113.7 65.1 50.7 5.9 10.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------