***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 18.7 132.3 71.3 61.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.0 19.5 127.8 71.3 61.5 4.0 7.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 19.7 24.3 18.5 124.7 71.5 61.6 4.5 8.9 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.6 21.6 23.7 131.8 68.7 59.6 4.5 12.2 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 16.6 17.8 24.9 146.8 71.4 64.2 3.2 6.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.8 12.0 33.8 128.9 68.0 62.5 7.3 9.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.5 14.5 19.7 126.9 68.6 60.9 2.8 6.0 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 24.7 22.7 24.6 133.3 68.3 61.0 11.9 16.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 16.4 15.7 24.0 145.6 72.6 64.7 4.2 9.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 18.7 18.5 25.7 135.7 68.7 62.2 9.1 12.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 13.9 16.1 22.6 144.1 69.6 62.1 2.6 6.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.8 22.2 143.9 70.0 62.4 2.9 7.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.3 10.8 30.5 149.1 69.4 66.6 3.0 5.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 20.4 18.9 25.1 130.5 69.3 63.1 3.7 10.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.2 9.6 21.4 123.3 66.4 58.1 1.5 4.1 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 12.5 13.7 27.1 149.3 70.8 65.2 8.0 9.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.5 14.0 20.1 131.6 72.4 61.7 4.0 7.2 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 21.6 20.4 28.2 131.4 69.7 63.0 7.6 13.2 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 15.3 16.1 19.2 127.5 70.7 61.9 4.1 9.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 20.2 18.0 31.3 130.3 70.5 62.7 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 14.4 17.5 20.1 138.7 73.3 62.3 2.0 8.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 13.5 18.4 19.9 133.0 73.7 63.4 4.1 11.5 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 15.6 16.1 19.8 129.0 69.0 62.4 3.6 11.4 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 19.5 19.2 24.5 130.1 70.2 63.4 9.1 13.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.3 18.4 23.5 134.3 72.7 62.1 2.4 5.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.4 17.1 28.4 151.4 75.5 65.5 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.8 16.0 22.2 133.6 70.8 61.9 5.2 10.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.1 24.1 135.5 69.2 61.4 4.6 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 22.1 24.5 28.6 130.5 69.8 62.9 10.3 15.5 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.8 16.5 18.9 125.4 70.2 61.0 5.8 11.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------