***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.9 117.2 64.4 51.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 16.0 16.7 21.6 146.1 75.3 59.5 3.7 7.5 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.3 23.9 22.2 136.1 76.5 57.1 5.2 11.4 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.3 18.2 20.1 103.9 56.7 49.2 8.2 14.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.0 20.7 105.8 59.6 52.5 3.8 12.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.2 22.6 102.3 59.0 49.9 7.2 12.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.8 13.5 20.9 137.5 74.4 58.4 4.8 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 33.7 39.5 32.2 164.5 80.1 70.8 14.9 22.6 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.5 16.0 20.5 105.9 63.6 52.5 5.0 10.5 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.6 18.2 26.6 127.7 69.8 60.6 10.8 13.9 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.8 23.6 132.1 70.8 61.5 6.3 10.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 21.2 25.8 28.9 168.4 79.9 70.3 7.0 13.9 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.4 15.7 26.2 133.7 72.3 62.3 6.9 10.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 21.2 24.6 25.4 132.9 74.0 62.9 7.1 12.4 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.9 22.4 21.9 127.7 70.0 53.4 5.0 9.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.8 16.8 23.2 123.2 67.3 58.5 5.5 12.4 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 19.6 24.0 21.4 146.9 76.9 60.2 4.3 8.2 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 17.4 21.2 26.0 120.7 66.7 59.8 8.7 15.6 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 23.9 24.9 21.6 143.6 73.7 59.8 11.4 16.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 21.4 25.5 32.6 147.7 77.4 69.2 6.2 14.2 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.7 20.4 19.5 108.9 64.6 52.2 4.3 15.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 15.5 18.7 22.8 150.7 76.8 62.0 5.8 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 21.1 21.4 21.8 135.6 73.6 60.2 6.8 8.4 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 21.4 22.9 23.2 121.3 69.5 58.3 7.6 17.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.3 12.6 16.9 82.5 48.4 42.5 6.3 12.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 18.4 23.3 31.0 167.2 83.5 71.2 5.0 10.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 6.5 13.2 18.0 95.0 54.9 45.6 6.5 12.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.0 16.9 21.7 119.0 65.0 54.2 6.7 12.6 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 27.6 29.8 28.3 133.0 73.6 64.7 12.5 18.0 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.6 27.1 22.0 142.8 75.8 57.9 3.3 9.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------