***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 22.9 0.5 61.0 60.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.7 22.7 0.4 61.8 59.4 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.0 24.5 22.8 0.4 59.1 58.7 22.9 23.7 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 20.6 0.1 53.1 53.6 15.6 16.9 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.3 24.2 20.9 0.2 55.2 55.4 23.2 24.0 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.9 18.5 0.0 54.3 52.5 21.3 22.5 23.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 24.5 24.1 22.6 0.5 61.9 59.7 22.4 23.6 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.0 18.9 -0.1 49.9 51.4 11.1 12.0 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 23.7 24.0 21.5 0.2 54.8 55.8 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.2 19.9 0.0 52.3 53.2 22.4 23.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 23.6 24.0 20.4 0.1 55.4 54.3 22.7 23.3 24.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 23.0 22.8 19.9 0.0 52.1 52.3 21.7 22.7 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 23.9 24.1 19.6 0.1 56.2 54.1 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.0 21.1 0.1 53.0 53.8 22.5 23.7 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.2 21.3 0.1 50.8 53.4 23.1 24.1 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.4 20.1 0.1 56.7 54.0 23.2 24.0 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 23.6 24.0 22.4 0.4 59.6 58.3 22.3 23.4 24.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.2 23.0 19.1 0.0 51.5 52.2 21.9 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 23.6 24.0 22.8 0.4 61.4 59.4 22.4 23.3 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 17.9 16.8 -0.1 49.7 51.0 17.0 17.9 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 23.8 24.1 22.3 0.3 57.3 57.1 22.5 23.6 24.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.3 22.3 0.2 56.3 56.2 22.8 24.0 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 24.0 24.7 22.6 0.4 59.4 58.8 23.0 23.8 24.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.5 21.0 0.1 53.8 54.4 22.3 23.2 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.1 21.3 0.4 57.2 58.8 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.3 19.1 0.0 54.5 51.4 22.2 23.0 23.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 24.4 24.2 22.1 0.5 60.7 60.8 22.6 23.4 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.3 24.5 20.9 0.0 52.9 52.3 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.2 18.2 0.0 52.4 52.0 16.8 18.1 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 24.6 24.4 22.9 0.5 62.6 59.8 22.6 23.5 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------