***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 24.2 0.0 52.8 51.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 25.3 25.1 24.0 -0.1 53.9 50.5 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 25.3 25.2 24.2 0.0 52.2 50.7 23.9 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 17.8 17.6 22.3 -0.2 48.7 47.9 16.6 17.6 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.4 24.9 22.4 -0.2 47.7 48.1 24.4 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 23.5 23.4 20.0 -0.2 51.1 49.2 22.6 23.3 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 24.8 24.3 23.9 -0.1 53.8 50.6 23.3 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.3 20.6 -0.4 47.1 46.5 11.8 12.5 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.0 22.8 -0.2 47.1 48.2 23.1 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.8 24.4 21.4 -0.3 47.0 47.2 23.2 24.5 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.4 21.9 -0.2 47.1 48.1 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.4 21.5 -0.3 47.3 47.0 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.3 20.9 -0.3 48.3 47.9 23.6 25.3 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.9 22.4 -0.4 49.2 47.7 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 25.7 25.6 22.7 -0.2 49.6 48.3 24.9 25.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.1 25.8 21.5 -0.2 48.5 48.0 24.4 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.0 23.6 -0.2 48.7 49.0 23.1 24.0 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 23.4 20.6 -0.4 48.7 46.8 22.7 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 24.7 24.5 24.1 0.0 55.2 50.8 22.5 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.1 18.6 18.3 -0.4 49.2 46.2 18.1 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 25.0 24.6 23.7 -0.1 48.9 49.3 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.3 23.6 -0.3 48.8 48.1 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 25.3 25.1 23.9 -0.1 55.8 50.9 23.4 24.9 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.2 22.4 -0.3 49.8 48.1 22.8 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 25.3 25.0 22.6 -0.1 51.8 49.8 23.6 25.0 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.4 20.6 -0.3 48.2 46.6 23.0 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 24.8 24.6 23.3 0.0 53.5 50.8 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 25.8 25.5 22.5 -0.3 48.5 47.7 24.6 25.5 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.9 18.3 19.6 -0.4 50.0 46.7 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 25.1 24.8 24.2 0.0 54.9 51.0 23.6 24.7 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------