***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 22.8 -0.1 47.5 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.3 22.7 -0.2 48.9 50.8 23.3 24.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.1 22.8 -0.2 48.1 49.8 22.8 24.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.6 20.9 -0.4 48.6 47.7 15.1 16.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.3 20.9 -0.4 47.3 47.4 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 21.0 21.5 18.6 -0.4 44.6 45.4 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.7 22.6 -0.2 48.1 50.8 22.8 23.7 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.9 19.1 -0.5 45.1 46.0 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.6 23.6 21.3 -0.4 46.8 47.5 21.4 24.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.5 19.9 -0.5 46.5 46.6 21.8 24.1 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 22.1 23.8 20.4 -0.4 47.0 47.3 22.2 24.2 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 21.0 22.2 20.0 -0.4 44.5 46.2 21.3 22.7 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 22.0 23.3 19.4 -0.5 42.4 45.4 22.5 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.4 21.1 -0.5 46.6 47.7 22.4 24.5 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 23.2 24.4 21.3 -0.3 47.7 48.3 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.6 23.9 20.1 -0.4 45.4 46.4 23.0 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.3 22.4 -0.2 47.5 50.5 22.9 23.6 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.5 22.8 19.2 -0.5 45.7 46.5 21.5 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.8 22.8 -0.2 49.0 50.7 22.8 23.8 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.6 17.7 16.9 -0.5 45.1 46.1 16.9 18.2 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.1 22.2 -0.3 48.9 48.6 22.3 24.2 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.9 22.3 -0.3 46.2 49.3 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.2 22.6 -0.2 50.2 50.2 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.5 21.0 -0.5 46.9 47.6 21.6 23.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.0 21.2 -0.3 49.3 48.6 22.8 24.1 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 21.4 22.6 19.1 -0.5 42.1 44.6 21.8 23.0 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.8 21.9 -0.2 47.8 49.4 22.8 23.8 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.6 21.0 -0.4 48.2 47.5 22.3 23.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.5 17.7 18.2 -0.5 45.6 46.4 16.9 18.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.9 22.8 -0.2 48.0 50.6 23.1 24.0 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------