***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 21.7 -0.3 42.1 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 22.7 24.1 21.5 -0.4 40.8 45.9 22.6 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.4 23.5 21.7 -0.4 40.4 46.7 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.7 19.9 -0.4 35.1 46.0 15.4 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 22.5 23.2 20.0 -0.5 35.9 46.3 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 20.7 22.2 17.6 -0.6 41.3 46.0 21.6 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 21.7 23.6 21.4 -0.4 40.7 46.1 22.7 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.6 18.2 -0.7 35.3 44.9 11.3 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 22.1 22.5 20.4 -0.5 39.4 46.3 22.1 24.3 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 21.9 22.6 19.0 -0.6 37.2 45.7 22.2 23.9 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 21.9 22.9 19.4 -0.5 36.0 46.2 22.4 24.3 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 20.6 22.3 19.0 -0.6 36.3 45.1 21.7 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.7 18.4 -0.7 39.4 44.5 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 22.4 22.7 19.9 -0.6 36.1 43.8 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 22.8 22.7 20.3 -0.3 37.2 46.0 22.3 25.1 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.2 19.0 -0.6 38.0 45.4 23.5 24.9 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 21.3 22.8 21.1 -0.5 39.1 44.5 21.8 23.4 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.2 22.2 18.2 -0.7 37.6 44.9 22.0 23.3 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 21.8 23.1 21.5 -0.4 40.4 46.1 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 16.1 17.8 15.9 -0.8 36.9 43.0 17.2 18.5 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 22.1 22.9 21.2 -0.4 39.5 46.5 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 22.1 22.7 21.0 -0.7 36.7 43.2 21.9 24.7 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.7 21.4 -0.4 39.6 46.0 22.1 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 21.7 22.7 19.9 -0.6 37.9 45.3 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.1 22.9 20.2 -0.3 38.2 46.5 22.5 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.6 18.0 -0.8 35.2 42.3 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 22.2 24.0 20.9 -0.3 41.1 47.0 22.7 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 22.2 22.9 20.0 -0.5 36.5 45.8 22.0 24.5 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 16.2 17.0 17.2 -0.7 36.9 44.1 16.7 18.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.3 23.3 21.7 -0.3 41.1 46.5 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------