***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 0.0 22.8 2.4 85.7 83.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 24.6 25.6 22.7 2.4 87.1 83.4 20.4 22.5 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 25.0 25.7 22.6 2.2 82.7 80.7 20.5 21.9 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.2 19.4 1.4 74.1 72.0 13.2 15.0 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 24.8 25.5 20.4 1.7 76.2 75.0 20.5 22.1 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 49 51 100 22.3 22.3 17.6 1.3 69.5 68.9 19.1 20.8 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 24.2 25.5 22.6 2.4 87.9 84.1 19.9 22.0 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 11.9 11.6 18.0 1.3 71.9 70.5 8.1 10.4 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 24.0 24.4 21.4 1.8 76.0 75.6 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 23.3 23.9 19.3 1.5 73.5 72.4 19.8 21.1 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 23.8 24.0 19.9 1.6 74.6 73.0 20.2 21.1 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 22.9 23.4 18.9 1.4 74.0 71.6 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 24.4 25.3 19.5 1.9 77.5 75.9 20.1 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 24.0 24.5 21.0 1.7 77.9 75.6 20.7 22.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 24.1 24.6 21.0 1.3 72.7 70.7 21.0 21.8 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 24.4 25.1 19.7 1.7 75.3 73.7 20.6 21.8 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 23.6 25.2 22.5 2.4 89.2 83.7 20.0 21.7 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 22.8 23.4 18.5 1.5 74.7 72.4 19.7 20.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 23.6 25.2 22.7 2.3 86.3 82.5 20.0 21.9 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 18.1 18.2 16.3 1.5 75.1 73.6 14.7 16.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 24.5 25.0 22.2 2.0 77.9 77.4 20.3 21.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 24.0 25.5 22.3 2.2 88.0 81.4 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 24.4 25.1 22.5 2.2 84.6 80.9 20.4 22.4 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 23.6 24.4 20.6 1.7 77.4 74.5 20.0 21.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 24.3 24.8 21.3 2.2 82.2 80.9 20.0 22.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 23.3 23.9 18.4 1.7 75.7 73.2 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 24.5 25.4 22.3 2.5 86.3 84.5 20.2 21.9 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 23.9 24.2 19.9 1.3 70.6 69.2 20.8 22.1 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 17.7 18.4 17.8 1.6 76.5 73.6 14.5 15.5 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 24.6 25.3 22.8 2.4 86.0 83.4 19.9 21.9 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------