***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 13.6 1.1 80.9 76.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 12.3 12.4 13.4 0.9 75.9 73.5 11.2 11.7 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 14.2 14.6 13.4 1.0 80.5 77.3 12.8 13.0 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 9.1 9.5 11.2 0.7 75.9 72.7 7.5 8.1 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 10.9 11.0 11.2 0.8 77.9 73.6 9.9 10.2 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 9.5 9.7 9.1 0.6 74.0 69.8 8.6 9.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 12.2 12.3 13.3 0.8 75.6 72.0 11.3 11.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 4.5 4.7 9.2 0.7 79.7 73.1 3.3 4.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 11.6 11.9 11.7 0.8 80.3 74.8 10.6 10.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 11.6 11.9 10.0 0.8 80.9 74.1 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 11.3 11.5 10.7 0.8 80.0 74.4 10.2 10.8 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 9.5 9.8 10.0 0.7 79.8 72.7 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.9 9.4 0.6 76.9 69.9 9.9 10.4 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 12.3 12.3 11.6 0.8 77.1 73.9 11.1 11.7 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 12.4 12.5 12.0 0.8 78.4 73.4 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 11.9 12.1 10.2 0.7 77.7 71.6 10.8 11.3 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 12.5 12.5 13.0 0.7 72.7 69.5 11.5 12.0 12.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 10.0 10.4 9.2 0.7 78.4 73.3 8.8 9.3 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 12.5 12.7 13.4 1.0 77.9 75.9 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 6.3 6.5 7.3 0.7 77.5 71.5 4.8 5.7 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 11.6 11.9 12.7 0.9 79.0 75.1 10.8 10.9 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 11.6 11.8 12.9 0.7 74.9 71.0 10.6 10.9 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 12.1 12.3 13.1 1.0 80.2 78.0 10.6 11.2 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 11.6 11.7 11.3 0.8 79.2 75.3 10.5 11.1 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 12.1 12.7 12.2 0.9 81.5 75.6 11.1 11.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.4 9.3 0.4 72.0 65.5 9.5 10.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 12.6 13.0 12.9 1.0 79.2 75.4 11.5 11.7 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.4 10.5 11.4 0.6 75.4 71.0 9.5 10.1 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 9.0 9.5 8.5 0.7 80.7 73.7 7.6 7.8 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 12.4 12.5 13.5 0.9 77.4 75.2 11.2 11.8 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------