***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.1 -0.2 45.8 49.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.7 12.9 -0.2 49.9 49.8 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.8 12.9 -0.1 50.6 50.8 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.2 10.9 -0.2 42.7 48.2 7.6 8.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.8 10.8 -0.2 43.4 48.8 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.4 8.8 -0.2 46.4 47.4 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.8 12.9 -0.3 49.0 48.8 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.1 8.9 -0.2 45.4 48.6 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.4 11.5 11.2 -0.2 46.2 49.2 11.0 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.6 9.6 -0.2 45.9 48.8 11.0 11.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.5 10.3 -0.2 45.4 48.9 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.4 9.6 -0.2 43.7 48.1 8.5 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.6 9.0 -0.3 41.4 45.4 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.0 11.1 -0.2 46.3 49.2 11.7 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 11.5 12.2 11.5 -0.2 43.0 48.6 11.7 12.4 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.5 9.8 -0.2 44.1 47.6 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.4 12.6 -0.4 48.8 48.8 11.4 12.5 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.2 8.9 -0.2 47.5 48.5 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.2 12.9 -0.1 50.3 50.9 11.2 12.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.0 7.0 -0.3 45.3 47.1 5.7 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.4 12.2 -0.1 46.8 49.1 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.4 12.5 -0.4 47.7 48.8 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.7 12.7 -0.1 51.5 51.4 10.9 11.7 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.3 10.9 -0.1 48.4 50.1 11.1 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.6 11.4 11.6 -0.3 43.1 47.6 10.9 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.4 9.8 9.1 -0.5 37.5 42.3 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.6 12.3 -0.3 44.1 48.0 10.9 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.4 11.1 -0.2 43.1 48.3 10.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.1 8.1 -0.2 46.4 48.2 7.6 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.4 13.1 -0.2 50.8 49.9 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------